Could the Tories replace Rishi Sunak before the next election?

Party members would love to see Boris Johnson or Liz Truss back in charge. Sean O’Grady examines whether Tory MPs are ready to topple yet another leader

Heading for the door? Rishi Sunak leaves No 10 for the Commons on Wednesday (Reuters)

It has been a difficult few weeks for Rishi Sunak. The Budget failed to reinvigorate the party’s popularity and his personal ratings remain dismal, stuck down at Liz Truss levels of depression. A string of racism rows and the defection of former deputy chairman Lee Anderson to Reform UK have dealt further blows. His subdued party endured rather than enjoyed this week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, and Keir Starmer was able to crack a gag about only needing a hardy lettuce to make it 2022 all over again. The No 10 media team seems unable to get a consistent line out for ministers to take. There is talk of a “flurry of letters” going to the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, calling for Sunak to go; and he’s been warned off calling a May election (assuming he wanted to anyway).

Can the prime minister survive until the election?

Probably. The public wouldn’t appreciate yet another unelected Tory prime minister; it would be the fourth in four years and the sixth in the last decade. It’s all too difficult and embarrassing; but the mood in the party is getting nihilistic. If they slump even further in the polls and get overtaken by Reform UK, panic might set in. The Tory chaos may get worse, but as long as some kind of stability is achieved in public opinion, Sunak will get through it.