Poll puts Tories on course for overall majority in election

(INDEPENDENT GRAPHICS)

The Conservatives have opened an 11-point lead over Labour and are on course for an overall majority at the next election, according to the latest monthly poll for The Independent.

The survey by ComRes, taken after the Government announced the nationalisation of the ailing Northern Rock bank, will come as a relief to the Tories, whose lead over Labour was eroded in January.

According to the new poll, the Tories are on 41 per cent (up three points on last month), Labour is unchanged on 30 per cent, the Liberal Democrats remain on 17 per cent and other parties are on 12 per cent (down three). If repeated at the next election, David Cameron would win with an overall majority of 38.

ComRes, formerly CommunicateResearch, puts the Tories ahead among every social class, including the bottom DE group in which Labour has recently held the advantage. Among the top AB group, the Tories enjoy a commanding lead – they are on 43 per cent to Labour's 24 per cent.

Mr Cameron's party holds the advantage over Labour in every region of Great Britain apart from Scotland. It has even edged one percentage point ahead in Labour's traditional heartland in the North, where jobs are likely to be lost at Northern Rock. In the South-east including London, the Tories (45 per cent) are well ahead of Labour (30 per cent), boosting their hopes that Boris Johnson will oust Ken Livingstone in May's election for London Mayor.

The only age group among whom Labour is ahead is the 18-to 24-year-olds, but they are the least likely to vote.

One key factor in the Tories' favour is that their supporters are much more motivated than those of their rivals. Two-thirds of those intending to back the Tories are "absolutely certain" to vote – compared to only 51 per cent of those who say they intend to support the Liberal Democrats and 50 per cent who say they will back Labour.

People who regard themselves as natural Tories are more loyal than those who identify with other parties. Some 94 per cent of Tory identifiers say they will support Mr Cameron's party. For Labour, the figure is 84 per cent.

Nick Clegg, the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, has not yet lifted his party's overall poll rating but he appears to be appealing to its natural supporters. The number of Liberal Democrat identifiers who say they will vote for the party has risen from 68 per cent last month to 80 per cent. Yesterday, Mr Clegg called for an "in or out" referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, saying politicians had "all gone crazy" over ratifying the Lisbon Treaty.

He said: "The debate over Britain's future in Europe has been poisoned for too long by a Labour Party that refuses to make the case for it, and an opportunistic Tory party that actively seeks to undermine it."

But the Tories accused Mr Clegg of trying to distract attention from his party's refusal to back their call for a referendum on the treaty.

ComRes telephoned 1,010 GB adults on 22-24 February 2008. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Click here to see the results.