Retreat in Downing Street: Blair's spokesman says Saddam can stay in power if he is disarmed

Tony Blair's "moral" case for war in Iraq appeared to be in tatters last night after Downing Street admitted that Saddam Hussein would be allowed to stay in power if he disarmed fully.

The Prime Minister told the Labour spring conference at the weekend that it would be "inhumane" to "leave Saddam in place". But his official spokesman stressed that government policy had not changed to the moral argument for "regime change" and its focus remained Iraq's failure to comply with UN demands over weapons of mass destruction.

The confusion came as a new opinion poll showed the first clear majority of Britons opposing a war against Baghdad. The Guardian/ICM poll shows 52 per cent do not want military action, while Mr Blair's personal approval rating plunged to minus 20 points.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman stressed that the Government did not expect President Saddam to comply with UN demands. "It's our firmly held view that he depends on his weapons for power and we don't believe he is serious about disarming," he said. But, he added: "If Saddam Hussein co-operates, if he's serious about disarmament, then he can stay in power."

Clearly rattled by the size of the demonstrations across Britain, Downing Street again insisted that Saturday's peace marchers did not enjoy a "moral monopoly" and said Mr Blair would continue to highlight the nature of President Saddam's regime.

"The Prime Minister will continue to underline the barbaric nature of the regime, he will continue to stress the nature of the humanitarian crisis within Iraq because it is serious and it is acute and responsibility for it lies directly at the door of Saddam Hussein.

"We are not at the point of military conflict, no decision has been taken. But if you do go to war it is not just a question of lives being lost. If it leads to the removal of a dictator who runs his country like a butcher's shop then lives will be saved as well."

The spokesman said that if President Saddam was disarmed, the nature of the regime would change because he relied on weapons of mass destruction to murder his own people. He shrugged off suggestions that Iraq's internal repression relied not on chemical and biological weapons but on conventional weapons and torture.

The spokesman said the Government had listened to protests even though it disagreed with the arguments.

"People shouldn't lose sight of the fact that of course we do listen and we have been listening, and we have made strenuous efforts to go back down the UN route. We continue to go down the UN route. That's where this issue should be resolved. There has been no rush to conflict from our side or any other side."

Mark Seddon, a member of Labour's ruling National Executive Committee, said that the confusion at the heart of such an important policy area as Iraq was "astonishing". He said: "Downing Street itself appears to have shot Tony Blair's fox. There was the Prime Minister on Saturday telling us all that he wanted to get rid of Saddam because of his evil regime and within two days his own spokesman says the dictator can stay in place if he disarms.

"We've already had the grotesque situation of Mr Blair saying that sanctions are killing innocent Iraqis when that's exactly what the left have been arguing for years. The problem is, the sanctions are imposed by him. Now he finally wakes up to the murderous regime. Of course we want to see Saddam go, but bombing is not the answer."

The Church of England warned yesterday that military action against Iraq was likely to aggravate already "huge" humanitarian problems in the country. Suffering in Iraq could be worse than it was in Afghanistan during the conflict in 2001, the Church of England community and public affairs unit said.