Second poll puts Ukip and Douglas Carswell in lead (again) at Clacton by-election

Lord Ashcroft's poll returned a 32-point lead for Ukip over the Tories, down from a previous poll which showed the party with a 44-point lead

Ukip can almost taste electoral success if yet another poll is anything to go by.

The Euro-sceptic party is apparently on par to win a landslide victory at the Clacton by-election on 9 October, after a Tory defector stood down from his post.

Douglas Carswell, who left the Conservatives last month to join the Ukip ranks, will be running for his previous post under his new party and could become Ukip’s first ever MP.

Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer, conducted a survey which found that Ukip holds a 32-point lead over the Tories in the Clacton seat.

Writing on ConservativeHome, he said that his Clacton poll showed how “more than half (59 per cent) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election said they would switch to UKIP, as did 45 per cent of 2010 Labour voters.


“Most of the Clacton electorate, including nearly nine out of ten UKIP supporters and more than half of Tories, expected Douglas Carswell to hold the seat for his new party.”

Lord Ashcroft’s results follow a Survation poll by the Mail on Sunday, which recorded Ukip having an astounding 44-point lead over the Tories.

It showed 64 per cent of voters were heading for Ukip, with 20 per cent voting Conservative, 13 Labour and 2 the Liberal Democrats.

For Lord Ashcroft, these results were 56 per cent Ukip, 24 per cent for the Conservatives, 16 for Labour and again 2 for the Liberal Democrats.

READ MORE: Carswell’s defection was a nightmare for Cameron
Clacton by-election to take place on David Cameron's birthday
Tory Eurosceptics to defy Cameron with manifesto pledges
Clacton’s existing Ukip candidate vows to fight on

His poll also found that over half of Clacton’s voters believe Carswell to be “more principled than most politicians”, with two thirds stating that they intended to vote for him because he is the “best candidate” – reasoning slightly removed from the usual ‘dissatisfaction with mainstream politics’ one given by Ukip supporters.

The Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate for the by-election, with Matthew Offord MP today calling on Boris Johnson to step up to the plate, despite the London Mayor having already laughed off the suggestion.

“The first objection really, is that I've already whacked in the CV for Uxbridge. It would seem a bit eccentric.,” Mr Johnson told LBC Radio yesterday.

Mr Offord, however, believes Mr Johnson should be a “serious consideration” due to his “individual personality” which “would attract not just the traditional Conservative voter, but many of the other parties – including Ukip,” he said.

Prime Minister David Cameron has also said that his party is going to fight tooth and nail for the seat: "Let's go down to Clacton, do the job, fight for every vote," said according to the Mail.

Not all those in Clacton are enthused by Mr Carswell's running, including Ukip's current candidate for the seat - Roger Lord.

He told Buzzfeed that he will be "carrying on" with his fight for the seat.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
ebooksA celebration of British elections
  • Get to the point
2015 General Election

Poll of Polls

Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Senior Digital Marketing Consultant

£28000 - £45000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Senior Digital Marketing Cons...

Recruitment Genius: Assistant Stores Keeper

£16640 - £18500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An Assistant Stores Keeper is r...

Recruitment Genius: Claims Administrator

£16000 - £18500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an excellent opportunit...

Recruitment Genius: Software Developer - C# / ASP.NET / SQL

£17000 - £30000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Developer required to join a bu...

Day In a Page

'It was first time I had ever tasted chocolate. I kept a piece, and when Amsterdam was liberated, I gave it to the first Allied soldier I saw'

Bread from heaven

Dutch survivors thank RAF for World War II drop that saved millions
Britain will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power - Labour

How 'the Axe' helped Labour

UK will be 'run for the wealthy and powerful' if Tories retain power
Rare and exclusive video shows the horrific price paid by activists for challenging the rule of jihadist extremists in Syria

The price to be paid for challenging the rule of extremists

A revolution now 'consuming its own children'
Welcome to the world of Megagames

Welcome to the world of Megagames

300 players take part in Watch the Skies! board game in London
'Nymphomaniac' actress reveals what it was really like to star in one of the most explicit films ever

Charlotte Gainsbourg on 'Nymphomaniac'

Starring in one of the most explicit films ever
Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi: The Emirates' out-of-sight migrant workers helping to build the dream projects of its rulers

Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi

The Emirates' out-of-sight migrant workers helping to build the dream projects of its rulers
Vince Cable interview: Charging fees for employment tribunals was 'a very bad move'

Vince Cable exclusive interview

Charging fees for employment tribunals was 'a very bad move'
Iwan Rheon interview: Game of Thrones star returns to his Welsh roots to record debut album

Iwan Rheon is returning to his Welsh roots

Rheon is best known for his role as the Bastard of Bolton. It's gruelling playing a sadistic torturer, he tells Craig McLean, but it hasn't stopped him recording an album of Welsh psychedelia
Russell Brand's interview with Ed Miliband has got everyone talking about The Trews

Everyone is talking about The Trews

Russell Brand's 'true news' videos attract millions of viewers. But today's 'Milibrand' interview introduced his resolutely amateurish style to a whole new crowd
Morne Hardenberg interview: Cameraman for BBC's upcoming show Shark on filming the ocean's most dangerous predator

It's time for my close-up

Meet the man who films great whites for a living
Increasing numbers of homeless people in America keep their mobile phones on the streets

Homeless people keep mobile phones

A homeless person with a smartphone is a common sight in the US. And that's creating a network where the 'hobo' community can share information - and fight stigma - like never before
'Queer saint' Peter Watson left his mark on British culture by bankrolling artworld giants

'Queer saint' who bankrolled artworld giants

British culture owes a huge debt to Peter Watson, says Michael Prodger
Pushkin Prizes: Unusual exchange programme aims to bring countries together through culture

Pushkin Prizes brings countries together

Ten Scottish schoolchildren and their Russian peers attended a creative writing workshop in the Highlands this week
14 best kids' hoodies

14 best kids' hoodies

Don't get caught out by that wind on the beach. Zip them up in a lightweight top to see them through summer to autumn
Robert Fisk in Abu Dhabi: The acceptable face of the Emirates

The acceptable face of the Emirates

Has Abu Dhabi found a way to blend petrodollars with principles, asks Robert Fisk