The Regions: Wales

The vote may yield a more multicoloured map of west

Wales can usually be counted on to turn solid red each election year, but their seats are increasingly under threat from a resurgent, well-funded Conservative Party and Plaid Cymru, now the second-largest party in the National Assembly for Wales. (Rex Features)

Wales can usually be counted on to turn solid red each election year, but their seats are increasingly under threat from a resurgent, well-funded Conservative Party and Plaid Cymru, now the second-largest party in the National Assembly for Wales.

If psephologists' predictions are accurate, 2010 will see a slightly more heterogeneous Wales. Plaid Cymru are expected to make gains in the more rural north and west, and the Conservatives will pick off several of the most marginal Labour seats. In 2005, Wales sent 29 Labour MPs to Westminster, compared with only three Conservatives, four Liberal Democrats and three Plaid Cymru.

The Tories are expected to claw back at least four seats from Labour, and top of their list is the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South constituency. It has been specifically targeted by CCHQ, which has pumped in £10,116 of "Ashcroft" money in 2007-2008. Aberconwy is also high up the list, as are the wealthy suburban seats of the Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff North, which likewise require only small swings to turn blue.

In the long term, the main threat to Labour may come from Plaid Cymru, the left-leaning nationalist party that aims to devolve ever-greater powers to allow Wales to achieve "Full National Status" within the EU. Despite a disappointing performance in 2005, the party is competitive in three marginals in 2010: the Labour seat of Ynys Mon, the Liberal Democrats' Ceredigion, and the re-drawn constituency of Arfon.