Tories believe Brown will go to the country in March
Economic figures may mean that early election suits Prime Minister
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Senior conservatives believe that Gordon Brown may call a general election next March to head off the prospect of bad economic statistics scuppering his claim that he had guided Britain safely out of recession.
The economy is expected to start to grow in the final three months of this year, with the official figures due to be released in January. But if that growth is not maintained when figures for the first quarter of 2010 are issued in April, that would deal a devastating blow to the Prime Minister.
"There is a real possibility that, after one quarter of growth, Britain slips backwards," said one Tory frontbencher. "If that happened, there would be fears about a double-dip recession. It would blow Brown's credentials as the man who steered us through the storm out of the water."
The Government suffered a setback last month when the Office for National Statistics said the economy contracted by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year, confounding City expectations that the country had already emerged from recession. The figure may be revised in statistics to be published today.
Shadow Cabinet ministers are actively discussing Mr Brown's election options. Although several still expect him to hang on until 6 May, when local elections are due to be held, a growing number suspect that he might opt for earlier.
A senior Tory official said: "We are not on red alert for March but it is certainly true that we don't rule it out. We will be ready whenever it comes."
Last night senior Labour sources discounted the possibility of a March election. The party's officials have a working assumption of 6 May but do not rule out an April poll.
One argument in favour of an early election is it would be before tax rises due to take effect in April – including a higher 50p top rate on earnings over £150,000. But one possible downside for Labour is that it would almost certainly prevent a Budget being held in the run-up to the election.
Under the fiscal stability code for which Mr Brown legislated in 1998, there must be a gap of at least three months between the pre-Budget report and the Budget. The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, will present his PBR on 9 December, so the Budget could not be held until 9 March, preventing a 25 March election being announced at the start of the month.
With a huge black hole in the public finances to be filled, the prospects of a giveaway eve of election Budget would be limited – although Labour might not want to give up the option of a few headline-grabbing "goodies".
If an election is called without a Budget being held, the Tories plan to accuse Labour of "running scared" and trying to "hide the truth" about the state of the economy.
Tory election planners are also discussing how to neuter the impact of Mr Brown's appearances on the world stage in the run-up to the election. He will attend next month's Copenhagen summit on climate change and plans to host an international conference on Afghanistan in January and an international investment conference in London in February. He will attend a Washington summit on nuclear disarmament called by President Barack Obama in March ahead of a review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
This week senior Tories are making a series of announcements on the environment in an attempt to stop the Prime Minister monopolising the issue.
The shadow Foreign Secretary, William Hague, will argue that climate change is an urgent security concern as well as an environmental one.
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Comments
Nobody is fooled by him hosting various international events in the run up, presumably hoping the exposure plays in his favour. I would guess every time he appears on TV he loses another few thousand votes.
As I have said for a long time I have no faith in either Tweedledum or Tweedledee. Getting on to a third of the voting public looks likely to agree with me and vote for other alternatives. A hung Parliament is a distinct possibility and then life might get a little more interesting.
Incidentally I notice that the governor of the B of E, is now saying that halving the debt in 4 years will not be enough to protect our credit rating.It will be interesting to see how Brown responds to this latest direct challenge, because he clearly does not want to cut in 2010, or at least for election purposes , says he doesn't.
Happy days, not!!
either way Gobbo has had his chips there never was PM as unpopular as him
Never mind, you will still be able to buy UGGG boots at bargain prices...
The reason why the Tories have slid backwards is very clear. Straight after their announcement that they threw away their cast iron guarantee saying the now would not hold a Referendum on the EU as promised many like me started looking around for new parties. They shafted us over Maastricht and as an opposition never once asked about the huge corruption in the EU. After the expenses scandal I think we need a God fearing man like Cromwell to clear this parliament of as many LibLabCon MP's so that other parties can have a say.
Under the circumstances I hope we can for once the British people vote with their heads not with their gut reaction of my father and I am Labour, Liberal or Conservative. For the good of Britain we need men who believe in Britain and are not get voted in on false promises only to find that they follow a party line contrary to British interests. My I Point out Browns false promise of British Jobs for British people. Our present MP’s are pro the corrupt EU where according to the auditors up to 95% of the EU budget amounting to Trillions over 14 years is Unaccounted for/missing. As a consequence they have refused to sign off the books over this time. One Conservative back bencher got up and asked the PM about the corruption, and the Mr Browns reply was “there we are wanting the old ways2 Yes Mr Brown of course we want the old ways, we yearn for them. We want to stop the galactic corruption and theft which were considered a criminal an sacking and resigning offences. We are sick of this once great nations assets built up over centuries being constantly sold off to foreigners to balance the budget. We want our great industries back. We want our fishing grounds back. We want our country back. Vote for any party other than the LibLabCon group. Be a Cromwell help us clear parliament of these corrupted men.
The comments here in general are right. Its going to be the same old same old. Pity really.
Ah !
There is no evidence that Brown has steared us through anything. What he did do through his
negligence in failing to regulate the City was help create the global financial crisis, and to expose Britain to far more of that global financial crisis than any of our major neighbours, most of which are already on the way back.
The Blair-Brown-Mandelson government will go down in history as the most destructive, dishonest, corrupt and wretched in Britain's history. It will a future metaphor for bad government, broken promises, mountainous debt, and economic ruin.
Could not have put it better myself, but tell that to the party hacks that infest this and other pages.
It is a lot easier blogging here than knocking on doors these days.. I can't wait for them to come knocking on mine 99...
We are in the same situation as 1979 with a dead-end useless Labour Govt in hopeless debt (as usual) and whoever follows them will as Mrs Thatcher did be faced with a country in turmoil and a shocking mess of debt. When on earth will voters in this country stop voting for Labour which seems incapable of understanding that money comes from somewhere (ie hardworking taxpayers), it doesn't materialise out of thin air.
The Conservatives have already reselected their MP, on a closed ballot. It's a safe seat. So no doubt conservative members will go and campaign somewhere else. Thousands of non-Conservative voters will be ignored , and Conservative voters will be taken for granted whether they want the sitting MP or not.