Brexit boosts support for Welsh independence, poll finds

Support for independence is significantly lower when couched in terms of retaining EU membership

Welsh independence remains a minority pursuit (Getty Images)

A substantial minority of Welsh people would consider supporting independence if leaving the UK kept Wales inside the European Union, a poll suggests.

A survey conducted by YouGov for the Welsh Political Barometer found 28 per cent of Welsh voters would support independence if it allowed Wales to “remain a member of the European Union” upon becoming an independent country.

The result was against 53 per cent who would not support independence and 20 per cent who did not know which way they would vote.

Though the figure is still relatively low, it is significant because previous polls have shown support for Welsh independence well under 10 per cent.

An ICM poll conducted in September 2014 during the Scottish independence referendum campaign found support for Welsh independence at a record low of just three per cent, though other polls have suggested slightly higher results.

The latest poll appears to be roughly a doubling of support for the cause of independence when the issue is couched in the context of remaining in the EU, however.

A more direct question, which did not mention the EU, saw support for independence rather lower, at 17 per cent.

Roger Scully, a professor of political science at the Welsh Governance Centre and Principal Investigator for the 2016 Welsh Election Study, warned that the poll should be treated with caution.

The National Assembly of Wales building in Cardiff Bay

“The poll showed considerable support in Wales for continued EU membership,” he wrote in an analysis.

“And for some respondents, at the time the poll was conducted, that support for EU membership appears to have been sufficiently strong that it would pull them towards supporting Welsh independence if it were the only way of remaining inside the EU.

“Whether such strength of sentiment on the EU will fade over time is something that we can’t currently know.

“Our results perhaps suggest some potential for supporters of Welsh independence to build upon. But the results also show, even in this most favourable context, that support for independence remains very much a minority position in Wales.”

In the wake of the EU referendum, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said Welsh independence should in fact be considered as an option.

The Welsh nationalists had previously supported independence as a long-term aspiration only, and on constitution issues campaigned primarily for more powers and devolution.

A rise in support for independence was recorded in polls in Scotland in the wake of the EU referendum result.