Tony and the women

They tend to vote Tory. Without them, Thatcher would never have been prime minister, nor would Heath or Major. Even today, as our poll shows, Labour has trouble appealing to women. Could this be Blair's vulnerable flank at the next election?

It was the sort of presentation that Labour normally leaves to pollsters. But a year ago, in the oak-panelled shadow cabinet room that overlooks Westminster Bridge, Clare Short addressed the party's most senior politicians about women's voting intentions - and she issued a warning.

Ms Short, who had spoken for the party on women's issues, was received politely as she briefed colleagues on how the party could woo a female electorate that was traditionally more wary than men of Labour. She described the so-called gender gap and outlined a strategy for tackling it.

How deeply this permeated her colleagues' consciousness remains unknown. One witness said the general response of shadow ministers was "very interesting ... what's next?" An aide to another said: "I'm not sure my man even noticed that, he certainly never mentioned it. I'm afraid, like many politicians, his eyes tend to glaze over if you start talking about the female vote."

All that changed last week, after American women voters played such an important role in putting Bill Clinton back in the White House, and after a report in the Financial Times suggesting that Tony Blair had flattened his hairstyle to increase appeal to women voters. In their very different ways, these two events suddenly turned the spotlight on Mr Blair and the women voters of Britain.

The Labour leader's press secretary, Alastair Campbell, dismissed the Financial Times report and argued that "the gender gap which existed in the last election has been largely closed". But the evidence of today's poll implies that this is optimistic in the extreme.

And Ms Short, for one, remains far from convinced that the battle is won. "Women," she said last week, "are progressively less Labour the older they get from 35 onwards. This is big stuff: it is the basic explanation of our failure in the last 50 years. Within the broad international pattern, this is a deep political failure for Labour."

First the facts, insofar as they can be agreed. Taken overall, women have historically been less likely than men to vote Labour. In fact, if women had never been given the franchise, Labour would have been in power without a break since 1945. Margaret Thatcher would never have been Prime Minister, and nor would John Major.

In MORI's polls of September 1996, 54 per cent of men backed Labour with only 51 per cent of women siding with the Opposition. The difference, though small, translates into an electorally significant number of votes.

But this is complicated by age factors. Young women are more likely to back Labour than young men, yet they represent only 6 per cent of the electorate and their record of actually turning out to vote is poor. Older women (19 per cent) are less likely to back Labour than older men but the older women are more likely to vote. Labour loses on the swings and the roundabouts.

Labour now disputes the gender gap theory, arguing that - instead of having a problem with women - its real difficulty is with older people of both sexes. Mr Campbell says that the small statistical difference between the male and female Labour vote overall "is explained by the over- 55s age group, where Labour does less well generally, and which contains far more women than men".

While that may be an important factor, today's MORI poll reveals a number of serious reservations among female voters who, for the first time, rank Mr Blair below Mr Major on a series of crucial measures.

They help to explain why Labour is struggling with women at a time when Bill Clinton's Democrats in America have ridden to power on the back of the suburban middle-class female vote - the so-called "soccer mums". And they illustrate another reason why Britain is bucking the trend of many European and Scandinavian countries where support among women for left and centre-left parties has overtaken that among men.

As Ms Short puts it: "All over the world there is a move among women towards progressive parties, mirroring female participation in the labour market. For us this is a political failure which has never been addressed, although it is clear that the Tories have."

One international comparison in particular makes Ms Short's point eloquently. In Norway's last general election, both the Labour Party and the Socialist Left Party had a higher proportion of female than male voters. But in Norway the political establishment is different. In 1991, the leaders of the country's three major political parties were all women. The last prime minister was a woman, Gro Harlem Bruntland, who at one stage presided over a cabinet nearly half of whom were female. Publicity shots tended to show the men relegated to the back row, rather out of sight.

In Britain, Labour has tried to force the pace of structural reforms of political life. First there was a rule change to give women three reserved places in shadow cabinet elections (this was later extended to four places). Quotas for female candidates in marginal seats came next, although that push eventually had to be scrapped following a ruling at an industrial tribunal. None the less, after the next general election they should still create 80-100 women Labour MPs, possibly up against as few as 20 Tory women.

All that said, however, today's poll throws doubt on the suggestion that women prefer female MPs, anyway. Moreover, Labour clearly remains to some degree a prisoner of its past. Born of the union movement, the party has often failed to reach out to women. As Ms Short puts it, for too long the party's political culture has not been of a "go-to-a-meeting, pass- a-resolution, have-an-argument, style of politics". In the Conservative Party women have acted as the pillars of a range of social activities which keep the party going at local level, from barbecues to tombolas.

Labour's campaigning appeal to women also lies far behind that of Bill Clinton's Democrats. In last week's US elections the gender gap worked dramatically in favour of Mr Clinton who claimed an advantage of 17 points among women voters. According to Baroness Shirley Williams, the former Labour cabinet minister - now Professor of Elective Politics at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University - part of the reason for this lies in the contrasting stances, the language and the styles of the rival campaigns. Mr Clinton's approach was, she argues, "embracing, warm, compassionate and emotional - he cries quite frequently on the campaign trail". Bob Dole, the defeated 73-year-old Republican challenger, by contrast, adopted the "old command and control style".

Mr Blair does not have the same campaigning appeal as his Democratic counterpart. Although, on many counts, he is far ahead of Mr Major, he now polls among women more negatively than the Prime Minister on some key elements: trustworthiness, honourableness, smarminess and sincerity. One American who saw Mr Blair in action at various receptions at the Labour Party conference in Blackpool earlier this year, was surprised at the lack of warmth in his meeting and greeting routine. "He looked like: `I don't want to be here, I'm not interested, when can I get away?'," he said. The Labour leader recognises privately that he is not as good at the glad-handing as he might be. And even if Mr Blair were spectacularly good at it, it is questionable whether such tactics (like shedding tears) would transfer to Britain.

Deeper issues surround the two most common criticisms of Mr Blair's image made by his

own women MPs. The first is that he has a certain smoothness that appeals little to female voters. One Labour MP (a woman) said: "It's this smoothy, synthetic, pop-star image that all the boys around him like, but women don't like. By making him so glitzy they have damaged his sincerity."

Not unnaturally the Tories have seized on this. One senior Conservative source argues: "Women are afraid that the whole of Tony Blair's New Labour is a rather corny chat-up line. If I was advising Tony Blair, I would tell him not to smile. It is something of an irony that we have concentrated on the eyes [in the famous devil's eyes advertisements], rather than the smile."

The second complaint is about the "macho" nature of much of Labour politics over the past three years, which may have taken the shine off Mr Blair's image among women. The Labour leader's repositioning of the party towards the centre of the political spectrum has involved taking on sections of the Labour movement, be they the unions or the left, to prove that the Labour Party has really changed. Looking tough can appeal to some voters, but it can put others off.

Then in the summer Ms Short was demoted from her transport portfolio after embarrassing the leadership over taxation and transport strikes. This was a piece of toughness that might have been designed to annoy some women voters. According to reports last week, Ms Short (who has also benefited recently from positive publicity after being re-united with her son who was adopted as a baby) now ranks among the most popular Labour women in the Shadow Cabinet.

One woman Labour MP said: "We need a bit less stridency. The macho approach is all a bit of a turn-off." A left-wing male colleague was more blunt: "There has been a surfeit of machismo, a lot of willy-waving."

On a policy level, too, Labour has trouble with evidence that it is failing to address the female agenda. The polls show that women's concerns should coincide more clearly with Labour than with the Conservatives. In July 1996, MORI found that 11 per cent more women listed health care as an issue of importance in deciding whom to vote for, 4 per cent said education. More men highlighted unemployment, law and order, taxation and Europe. Health care and education are generally perceived as Labour strong points, but it doesn't seem to help.

One explanation is that, while women are more concerned about public services, they remain more disillusioned with their delivery from Labour councils. As one Labour activist says: "They were the ones the loony left local authorities hacked off most. It's mothers who usually have most contact with schools and therefore saw what was going on."

Among women over 35, memories of the last Labour government survive, making them more susceptible to Tory arguments about the Winter of Discontent. Even Blairites concede that the legacy of 1980, with "division, disputes, Militant, violence and the hard-left" has been difficult to shed. But, more than that, some key female Labour political figures feel that women, who bear the brunt of family responsibilities, become steadily more conservative and resistant to changes that might threaten their lifestyle.

As one Labour figure puts it: "That means that all our sloganising about `time for a change' is much less effective with women." Another adds: "There is a fear of change, particularly among older women. Financial security is important to them. They were at the family formation stage when Labour was last in office. That lead to high mortgages and high inflation."

In the United States, female conservatism was tackled head on by Mr Clinton and turned to his advantage. The President (who was the incumbent) presented himself as a bastion against radical-right moves to dismantle social provision, and as the protector of women's hard-won civil rights gains, such as abortion.

The advice Ms Short tried to get across a year ago was more directly applicable to British politics because it focused on the need to bring along older women. Her polling analysis argued that many over-55s respond to the image of Britain as a powerful nation and to issues such as defence and patriotism, leaving Labour vulnerable to Conservative policies on Europe and devolution. Labour, however, could win out by stressing its agenda of fairness, by emphasising its commitment to quality health care and by arguing for strong job creation policies, particularly for the young unemployed whose lack of prospect lead to crime and disorder.

Much of this has been absorbed, although some believe it to have received insufficient emphasis. Privately, senior female figures have gone further, arguing that policies need to be more creative and tailored to women across the age range. Some want a greater spending priority to be given to childcare and education provision - perhaps as an alternative to other earmarked areas such as the reduction of VAT on fuel.

Other suggestions include a childcare hotline, which parents can ring in confidence to seek advice on parenting and the provision of advice material, sent directly to parents at appropriate intervals (the Government, after all, has birth details from the Child Benefit system), giving advice on dealing with toddler tantrums and sibling rivalry.

There is also some advice for free from Lady Williams, ironically now a Liberal Democrat peer. She points out that, early in the presidential campaign, Mr Clinton was advised to steer clear of sporting language and metaphors, which turn off women. This, however, may be difficult for the Labour leader, a man who recently named as his all-time favourite moment of television footage the 1966 World Cup final.

What they make of the wives

Will you be my electoral asset, dear?

Earlier this year the Conservatives highlighted Norma Major as an electoral asset. On the evidence of this poll, she is. Surprisingly, a majority of women believe that the wives of party leaders should be actively involved in the election campaign, so their role could be important.

Older women are more favourable to Mrs Major in almost all categories and 32 per cent of women over 55 believe her to be an asset to the Conservative Party. No women aged 18-24 labelled her attractive.

Cherie Blair comes over strongly as career-minded, intelligent and independent. One in five of all women believe her to be an asset to Labour and she is seen, overall, as the most attractive of the party leaders' wives.

Sincerity is the area in which she loses out to Norma Major most markedly. If Labour is considering promoting Cherie in the election campaign, in the way that Bill Clinton's wife Hillary was, this poll should give them cause for second thoughts. Mrs Blair's qualities - such as her independence and career-mindedness - are most likely to appeal to younger women when it is those over 55 that Labour most needs to win over.

Unfortunately for the low-profile Jane Ashdown, the Liberal Democrat leader's wife, her highest score was among the don't knows.

How they judge John, Tony, Paddy

Who's a pretty boy, then?

Whatever the root of John Major's success with women voters, it is hardly based on his sex appeal. Even among Conservative women, only 3 per cent believe he is attractive. On looks, Mr Blair wins easily, with 13 per cent of our sample labelling him attractive, against 7 per cent for Paddy Ashdown and 2 per cent for Mr Major. Women over 25 are twice as likely to say that Mr Blair is attractive as those aged 18-24.

Go slightly up the age range and views are not so positive towards Mr Blair. Women aged 25-54 (ironically those closest to the Labour leader in age) are in the age group most likely to accuse Mr Blair of being "smarmy". Young women are more likely to find the Prime Minister smarmy. In fact, 2 per cent more young women think Mr Major is smarmy than think Mr Blair is. That fits in with a general pattern within the age groups, with those over 55 more likely to be positive about the Prime Minister.

Perhaps one of the most more surprising findings is that more female voters think Mr Major is trustworthy than Mr Blair, yet more find the Prime Minister unprincipled than the leader of the Opposition. This could be because in polls people tend to identify more negative features in leaders of the parties they oppose. SC