Briefing: ANC to choose South Africa's next president

Battle starts today to find Thabo Mbeki's successor

South Africa's ruling party, the African National Congress, begins one of the most important conferences in its history today.

What's at stake?

The meeting could be crucial for the future of South Africa. It will choose the next president of the party: since the ANC holds an overwhelming majority in parliament, that in effect means the delegates will be deciding who becomes president when Thabo Mbeki steps down in 2009.

Who's in the running?

Mr Mbeki, who is in his second term, is barred by the constitution from standing again. But he wants to retain the leadership of the ANC so that he can name his successor. He certainly would not choose the populist Jacob Zuma whom he fired as deputy president in 2005. But Mr Zuma has the endorsement of five of the country's nine regions.

Does that mean he's home and dry?

Not necessarily. The 4,000 delegates will choose the next leader by secret ballot, and many may not follow the decision of their party's regional branches. Early sessions are likely to see numerous challenges to delegates' credentials.

What if Mr Zuma wins?

Disaster, according to the Mbeki camp. He was sacked after being implicated in a corruption scandal which saw his financial adviser jailed for 15 years. Mr Zuma was also acquitted of rape, but admitted having sex with a family friend whom he knew to be HIV-positive. How, ask his detractors, can such a man become president?

So why is he more popular than Mr Mbeki?

Mr Zuma speaks for millions who feel the president's adherence to pro-business policies has benefited only a small black elite. Mr Mbeki's stance on Aids and his refusal to condemn Robert Mugabe has contributed to his unpopularity.

Would President Zuma put South Africa on the path to ruin?

He and his supporters have been seeking to reassure the country that there would be no radical changes in economic policy. He has also promised to make the fight against HIV/Aids a national priority. But there is unease with the injection of tribalism into the debate, with his backers arguing that it is the turn of a Zulu.

Is there no alternative?

It is not impossible that the gathering could throw up another figure altogether say Cyril Ramaphosa, the hugely popular negotiator of the transition to majority rule who quit politics and went into business. The most intriguing aspect of the conference is that no one can be sure what will happen.