US to drop 21 places in global life expectancy ranking by 2040

Researchers estimate that the US will only have the 64th-highest life expectancy globally

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America is expected to drop 21 places in the global rankings for life expectancy by the year 2040, according to a new study.

People across the world are living longer, but US life expectancy is not improving as fast as that of other countries. By the year 2040, Americans are expected to live 79.8 years, a slight improvement over the 2016 average of 78.7 years.

The study, published this week in The Lancet, details calculations of life expectancy trajectories of 195 countries and territories.

Researchers estimate that the US will only have the 64th highest life expectancy globally, compared with its rank of 43rd in 2016. The study suggests that people in Spain will have the longest life expectancy by that time, at 85.5 years.

Everyone on the planet has the same risk of dying—100 per cent—but this study instead looked at “years of life lost,” based on risks that kill people prematurely. Most risks of premature deaths are projected to improve, but 36 are likely to worsen.

Improved technological and medical innovation, health spending, and assistance to developing countries is expected to help people around the world live longer. On the other side, noncommunicable diseases and HIV may worsen. The authors fear that a loss in momentum in the fight against HIV could result the disease rebounding.

A good long-term health forecast considers the past trajectory of a country, how independent causes of death are changing, and medical trends. However, no forecast is perfect, and innumerable things could change the outcome. New diseases and health issues could emerge and spread, while others could be cured or curbed between now and 2040.

Researchers at The University of Washington in Seattle conducted and published the study with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.