Watch out Clinton could still lose! But here's why she probably won't

Betting patterns on the US Presidential election are similar to those seen ahead of Brexit. You shouldn't read too much into that based on an analysis of the numbers and America's demographics

The odds say America will be with her (Getty)

Should we be afraid. Could Donald Trump still win the White House? According to the bookies Hilary Clinton hasn’t got this in the bag just yet. Although the odds are moving in her favour she still has an 18.2 per cent change of losing the Presidential election, based on the best price of 2-9 available with Coral at the time of writing.

That’s about in line with the New York Times election predictor, which bases its forecasts on the latest US nationwide and state polls that show Clinton enjoying a small but persistent lead. It puts her opponent Donald Trump’s chance at 16 per cent.

To put that in perspective that is about the chance of a field goal kicker missing from 38 yards out in the NFL. It happens, but despite the recent spate of kickers getting butterflies, it’s not a very common occurrence.

FiveThirtyEight, the exhaustively researched US site that calculates winning chances based on polls and other data, is a little more bullish about the Donald’s odds.

Its polls plus model still gives Trump a one in three chance of winning the most divisive election the country has seen.

But, and here’s the key point to remember, it is the electoral college that picks the President. Each state sends delegates to the college, more or less in line with its population. Mostly they are allocated on a winner takes all basis.

The arithmetic of the college - each candidate needs 270 votes to win - strongly favours Clinton.

The Donald has in his back pocket a core of red states that will back the Republican come what may. To win, however, he has to make further inroads into Clintonland than Clinton does into Trumpland.

Let’s say Clinton loses all the states in which the polls say she is threatened that went for Obama last time round. They are Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and one of the Maine’s congressional districts (the state is one of only two that allocates its college votes based on which candidate wins in each of its congressional districts). Let's also assume she loses North Carolina, which polling data suggests is a toss up. Clinton still has 274 votes, enough to walk, well hobble, into the White House. It would take Nevada’s six votes, or a poltical earthquake in another Clinton leaning state, in addition to that lot to flip it the other way.

As you can see, Trump’s margin for error is therefore very, very slim. Were one of those larger battleground states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina) to decide it’s with her, then Trump is doomed in the absence of a miracle in a state such as Pennsylvania, or Michigan. And a miracle is what it would require for him to take either of those states.

I tipped Trump to win Ohio a couple of weeks ago because the odds appeared to slightly underestimate his chance of winning when set against the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

However, the most recent poll published by the Columbus Dispatch, a newspaper in the state, has Clinton shading it, albeit narrowly, with her also having the edge with early voters. If that's true, it's good night Vienna for Trump.

But what about the Brexit effect? It is true that the betting on Trump has mirrored the betting on Brexit. William Hill, for example, has said that while the big money punters are for Clinton nine out of ten bets by number have been for the host of the US Apprentice. A similar situation occurred ahead of the EU referendum.

With so many Americans so very angry about the state of their country, and of a mind to try and torch the whole thing like Brexit voters, could Trump swing a shock?

No. And here’s why.

While Trump is strongly favoured among the sort of groups that backed Brexit, notably white males without a college degree who make up a sizeable corps of voters in America’s mid-Western “rust belt” (for which read Northern England), he’s managed to utterly alienate just about everyone else in the process.

America is a more diverse nation than Britain is, with a large and growing population of hispanics pushed into Clinton’s arms by Trump’s racist rhetoric. The Brexit effect is being over stated.

Clinton has cause for concern if the final opinion polls favouring her persuade Trump’s supporters to vote in numbers while some of hers stay home. Her candidacy has hardly sparked a wave of enthusiasm. But again, there is Trump’s ability to alienate people that may help hold up her turnout.

Hillary Clinton has been cleared by the FBI (for a second time) over e-mails sent using a private server when she was Secretary of State, and she ran lots of ads focussing on what Trump has said about women during last night’s NFL games, the most telling featuring a white male military veteran and life long Republican voter.

Clinton wins. If you’ve enough cash at hand to make backing an odds on shot worth your while, do so. However, at this point I might be inclined to sell the Sporting Index spread on Clinton's performance in the electoral college of 317-327 based on my forecast for the Independent’s sweep stake of 310.