Burmese junta hints at power sharing deal with Suu Kyi

Exclusive » regime to accept democrats' 1990 election victory ? but will still have a veto

Burma's ruling junta and Aung San Suu Kyi, the democracy leader released from house arrest here last week, have reached a secret agreement on power sharing, a Burmese political analyst with connections to the regime told The Independent on Sunday yesterday.

"The government is prepared to go along with recognition of the election result of 1990," – a landslide win by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) which the regime refused to endorse – "but will retain veto power," he said.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he added: "I believe a lot of details have been agreed. They are now putting finishing touches to the agreement. The government also insists that they will not accept the dismemberment of the Union of Burma." Burma, or Myanmar as the regime calls it, has many ethnic minorities in addition to the Burmans of the lowland plains.

As evidence of an agreement he pointed to the fact that, in contrast to her high-profile activities after she was released from house arrest in 1995, when large crowds gathered every day to hear her speak, this time Ms Suu Kyi has merely shuttled quietly between her home and the NLD party office, with side trips to an aunt, an abbot and a pagoda. "I don't think she would have agreed not to hold mass meetings without concessions on the part of the government," he said.

Ms Suu Kyi herself has said nothing about any such agreement, but she spoke to the IoS of the disputed 1990 election in a way that suggests a new flexibility. Until now the NLD had always insisted that the regime must hand over power on the basis of that result. Last week she said: "We are not holding on to the 1990 elections in the sense of using it to gain power... what we are concerned about is the democratic principle, not so much the question of who holds power. Which means there is obviously room for negotiations as to how they choose to honour the results of the 1990 election."

If a form of words can be agreed by which the regime "honours" the result of the 1990 election without handing over power, the way will be open further down the road for fresh elections. Ms Suu Kyi herself hinted at such a development. It was put to her that as 12 years have passed, she cannot now claim to speak for the Burmese people. "It's fair to say that," she replied – but added: "And who's to say we won't get a bigger majority this time?"

Talk of an agreement is certainly news. Nearly a week after Suu Kyi's release, Western diplomats in the impoverished south-east Asian country remain unconvinced that the military regime is ready to make meaningful changes. "Is it a developing political situation?" one of them queried sharply. "Nothing concrete has been achieved. There are no easy answers here. The regime have dug themselves a very deep hole. Coming out of that hole is going to be difficult."

Rangoon is a confusing place. With its lakes, dense woods and temples, it is perhaps the most beautiful capital in Asia. The mid-1990s boom gave it a smattering of modern hotels and a few business towers. And despite the bubble bursting, the city today remains sleek and seductive.

But beneath the beguiling surface lies a chaotic and deeply corrupt reality. Many hospitals cannot afford the drugs they need, teachers at some state schools demand fees from students because their salaries are not paid, the power supply is fitful, inflation is galloping, the economy is run for the convenience of the generals' businessmen cronies. Intrepid outsiders tempted to invest routinely lose their shirts.

But pressure has been building on the generals to move in the direction of democratic change. The world has moved on since 1995, the last time major reform was in the air. Today all south-east Asian countries are firmly behind Razali Ishmail, the UN special envoy who brokered the deal that brought about Suu Kyi's release. The veteran Malaysian diplomat and businessman is trusted by Suu Kyi and her colleagues; and his closeness to Mahathir Mohammed, Malaysia's Prime Minister, has given him particular clout with the regime. The Burmese generals identify closely with Dr Mahathir because of his resolute independence from the West.

"I think the process is irreversible," says one foreign insider. "The question now is the pace. Time is not on the government's side – but nor is it on Suu Kyi's, nor on the side of the people. All need to go quite fast."