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It has been six months since Malaysia Airlines flight 370 vanished over the Indian Ocean and yet the mystery endures. With 1,000 flight paths still to investigate, a new year-long search operation will be launched, according to the coordinating task force.
The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) is facing an “intimidating” challenge as it prepares a fresh off-shore investigation for the missing aircraft that could cost up to £29.5 million.
Martin Dolan, ATSB’s chief commissioner, made no promises that the wreckage of MH370 would be found, and admitted that the situation is “unprecedented.”
He told the Telegraph : “I don’t want to raise the hopes of the families of the people who were lost in this accident and then dash them again. I don’t want to create a false hope.
“But I don’t want them to write it off either, because we do think we have a reasonable prospect. We just don’t have a guarantee.”
Flight 370 went down in a remote and inhospitable area of the Indian Ocean, Dolan assured, but that expanse is over 600,000 sq miles – more than three times the size of Spain.
He said a "reasonably clear picture" of the plane's final trajectory has emerged, even if there are still about 1,000 possible paths it could have taken.
"There is an infinite possible number of tracks that the aircraft could have flown along, but for practical purposes there are about 1,000," he said.
Carrying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing 227 passengers and 12 crew members, the Boeing 777 known as MH370 vanished in the early hours of March 8.
Search operations lasted until late May with no significant discoveries – no trace of the plane nor its black box. Having spent months narrowing down the aircraft’s possible location, Australia and Malaysia have agreed to split the cost of the revived investigation. China, which had 153 citizens on board, is “reflecting” on its role in operations, and will play no immediate part. Recent reports accuse Chinese police of detaining and beating the families of MH370 passengers.
Show all 14 1 /14In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Shot down in a military training exercise While the Australian officials leading the search for MH370 say they remain “absolutely convinced” it ended up in the southern Indian Ocean, some passengers’ families – and theorists – distrust the unprecedented satellite data analysis involved. Among those who support this view are the British journalist and author Nigel Cawthorne, who has controversially already published the first book on the plane’s disappearance. e supports one theory, based on the eye-witness testimony of New Zealand oil rig worker Mike McKay, that the plane was shot down shortly after it stopped communicating with air traffic controllers. At the time there was a series of war games taking place in the South China Sea involving Thailand, the US and personnel from China, Japan, Indonesia and others, and Cawthorne has linked this to Mr McKay’s claims to have seen a burning plane going down in the Gulf of Thailand.
In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Stolen by Putin Jeff Wise, a private pilot and science writer, claims he has evidence that the plane made its way to the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, which is run by Russia as its largest space launch facility. He claims Vladimir Putin ordered Russian special forces to hijack MH370 and fly it to the spaceport, but admits he has 'no idea' why the Russian president would want to do such a thing
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Flown north and shot down deliberately, prompting cover-up At a stage in the investigation when it was believed the plane could have flown for some time from where it disappeared along either a northern or southern corridor, many posted on forums suggesting that if it had been the former we would never hear about what happened. Some still support this view, and former RAF navigator Sean Maffett told the BBC that after 9/11, any unidentified airliner entering the airspace of another country would lead to fighter jets being scrambled. “If the plane is in the northern arc it could easily have been shot down,” he said. This theory also involves a national – or possibly international – cover-up, based on the premise that no country would want to admit to shooting down an airliner full of passengers from all over the world.
In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Flown north in the ‘shadow’ of another plane Another theory suggests that instead of flying south, the plane flew north in the “shadow” of another airliner around half an hour to an hour after dropping off civilian radar. The aviation blogger Keith Ledgerwood argued that MH370 and Singapore Airlines flight 68 were in the same vicinity at the time, and said: “It became apparent as I inspected SIA68's flight path history that MH370 had manoeuvred itself directly behind SIA68 at approximately 18:00UTC and over the next 15 minutes had been following SIA68.” By flying a short distance behind and most likely a little above the altitude of SIA68, also a Boeing 777, Ledgerwood said that it would be able to appear as a single blip on radar screens. SIA68 flew on to Spain – and this theory suggests MH370 could have branched off and landed in one of a number of locations across Xinjiang (north-east China), Kyrgyzstan or Turkmenistan. Experts have said that the idea sounds “feasible”, and that even if higher-resolution military radar was monitoring SIA68 operators might have dismissed the fact that there were two objects as an technical glitch or echo.
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Tried to land on a desert island beach After reports that the plane had turned left shortly following its disappearance from civilian radar screens, speculation grew that it could have landed on a remote beach somewhere like the Andaman Islands, which lie between Indonesia and the coast of Thailand. Though CNN reported that locals dismissed the idea a Boeing 777 could land on an airstrip there undetected, the archipelago consists of hundreds of remote islands with some long stretches of sand. Former BA pilot Steve Buzdygan said it would be difficult – but not impossible – to bring a 777 down on a long deserted beach.
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Landed at a US military base One of the more outlandish conspiracy theories that has gained some traction online is the idea that MH370 could have been “captured” and flown to a military base on the UK-owned tropical atoll of Diego Garcia, in the middle of the Indian Ocean. The base is run by the US, and some have reportedly said in forum postings that the Kremlin has put some credence into this possibility. Such is the strength of belief in this theory that the US government has been forced to issue a denial. A spokesperson for the US embassy in Malaysia told the local Star newspaper that there was “no indication that MH370 flew anywhere near the Maldives or Diego Garcia”. “MH370 did not land in Diego Garcia,” he added.
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Headed for a remote airport in Langkawi, Malaysia One theory, put forward by another aviation blogger named Chris Goodfellow, has it that the sudden left turn came after major catastrophe knocked out a range of the plane’s electronics, from transponders to communications equipment. In this scenario and in the middle of the night, Goodfellow argued, the pilot would redirect towards the nearest safe airport. “This pilot did all the right things,” he said. “Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000ft (4,000m) strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lumpur because he knew he had 8,000ft ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.” This theory assumes that the plane was in fact controlled manually once it disappeared – and that it did not make it to Langkawi.
In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 A fire throughout the plane Many theories accept that the Inmarsat satellite analysis is accurate – that the plane headed south into the Indian Ocean and flew on for hours before a final, partial “handshake” in a remote location thousands of miles off the west coast of Australia. The issue here becomes explaining what happened in the cabin between the last contact with flight controllers and the plane’s seemingly inevitable crash far out to see. One suggestion is that a fire broke out, not just in the cockpit but throughout the interior of the plane. The implication is that this resulted in the attempt to turn back, after which the fire killed those on board. This theory would then have it that the fire went out before damaging the exterior of the plane, which flew on autopilot until its fuel ran out. Yet such a fire would be expected to spread with at least some warning – and that surely would have given the pilots time to issue a mayday distress signal.
In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 An explosion in the cockpit The theory of a sudden explosion within the cockpit before the turn left could explain why there was no attempt to signal for help. Since 9/11 cockpits doors have been fortified to become extremely difficult to bypass, and such a sudden incident could perhaps have incapacitated both pilots while keeping out the rest of the crew. This explanation does not seem to tally with the claims of some Malaysian officials, however, that the change in direction was the result of “seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer”.
In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 A struggle at altitude Though Malaysian officials believe that the plane was deliberately diverted, and that its communications systems were turned off one after the other, a detailed background check into all 227 passengers has cleared all of suspicion. If, however, we do accept that the plane was the subject of a passenger hijacking, it remains to be explained why the hijackers did not try to do more than fly the plane into the middle of the southern Indian Ocean. One theory suggests that there was some kind of struggle for control of the plane that ultimately ended with mutual destruction. Further analysis of data by Malaysian officials suggests that the plane was flown erratically once it left civilian radar, climbing to 45,000ft before dropping very low. Buzdygan told the BBC he would resort to this sort of flying if faced with would-be hijackers. “I’d try to disorientate and confuse the hijackers by throwing them around,” he said.
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 A botched hijack attempt The climb to 45,000ft could also have been carried out by the hijackers once they had taken control – in a bid to kill the passengers on board. At such an altitude it could be possible to depressurise the cabin, causing oxygen supplies to be deployed. These run out after 12-15 minutes and, if those flying the plane had access to another oxygen supply, could have been an attempt to prevent anyone intervening. Under this theory the suggestion is clearly that the attempt failed, killing the hijackers as well.
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Pilot suicide As part of the ongoing criminal investigation in Malaysia, police are looking into the state of mind and possible motives of the captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid. The Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar has said that “all possibilities” will be looked into, and there have been reports that Shah was going through a difficult marriage break-up.Yet such comments have been rubbished by the man’s relatives, who have described him since as a dedicated family man and model professional. Hugh Dunleavy, the commercial director of Malaysia Airlines, described Shah as a seasoned pilot with an excellent record. “There have been absolutely no implications that we are aware of that there was anything untoward in either his behaviour or attitude,” he told Reuters. “We have no reason to believe that there was anything, any actions, internally by the crew that caused the disappearance of this aircraft.”
In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 Sabotage – for a life insurance scam or corporate attack One of the other strands of the criminal investigation regards whether the plane was subject to some form of sabotage – either as part of a life insurance scam or over industrial espionage. Bakar said that when passengers and crew were being investigated, police were looking for “Maybe somebody on the flight has bought a huge sum of insurance, who wants family to gain from it or somebody who has owed somebody so much money, you know, we are looking at all possibilities.” There were also 20 employees of the US silicon chip company Freescale Semiconductor on board the plane at the time, and a retired Delta Airlines pilot has suggested the plane’s disappearance was an attempt to steal technology the engineers had applied – but not yet received – a patent for.
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In pictures: Theories that could explain what happened to MH370 A CIA cover-up Finally, the former prime minister of Malaysia Mahathir Mohamad has waded in with his own theory – suggesting that, one way or another, the CIA is definitely hiding something. In a blog entry posted on 18 May entitled ‘Boeing Technology – What goes up must come down’, Dr Mahathir Mohamad makes ten claims including that the plane was taken over remotely by officials working for Boeing and the CIA. The plane is somewhere, maybe without MAS markings,” reads Dr Mohamad’s post on chedet. “Someone is hiding something. It is not fair that MAS and Malaysia should take the blame,” 88-year-old Dr Mahathir, who was Malaysia's prime minister between 1981 and 2003, alleges. “Airplanes don’t just disappear,” he said, concluding: “For some reason the media will not print anything that involves Boeing or the CIA. I hope my readers will read this.” Boeing have denied Dr Mohamed’s theory.
HENNY RAY ABRAMS/AFP/Getty Images
The Australia-Malaysia search operation will begin on September 22 with the deployment of a vessel called Go Pheonix. It will use “next generation sonar synthetic aperture” equipment capable of producing high-quality images of the bottom of the ocean, according to Mr Dolan.
Fugro, a Dutch engineering firm that provides services to oil and gas companies, has been contracted to manage the high-profile hunt, and will assign three vessels in the coming weeks to search operations.
The physical search, as well as data analysis in the UK, Australia and France, will focus in part of the southern Indian Ocean known as the “seventh arc.” It is 2,485 miles long.
Mr Dolan said: "We know that the aircraft is in the water or on the sea floor close to that arc, and we are doing everything we can - which is a lot - to make sure we find it there.”
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