Cyprus fears new 'peace push' delay

The government of Cyprus believes that political uncertainty in Turkey and the forthcoming presidential elections in the United States may inhibit the Clinton administration from carrying out its "big push" this year aimed at settling the Cyprus dispute.

In an interview with the Independent, President Glafcos Clerides said the initiative, which had been expected to start this month, had been delayed, mainly because of the difficulty experienced by Turkey's political parties in forming a new government after the inconclusive general elections of last December.

Richard Holbrooke, the energetic US diplomat who brokered an end to the Bosnian war, said in December that he planned to make 1996 "the year of the big push" on Cyprus.

The island has been divided into a government-controlled south and Turkish- occupied north since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded Cyprus in response to an attempt by the then military junta in Athens to unite the island with Greece.

Mr Holbrooke is leaving the State Department soon without having set a negotiating process in motion. But Mr Clerides said the US could launch its initiative once a government is formed in Turkey.

"When, however, it starts, the important test will be how determined is the government of the United States to exert the necessary pressure which will yield results," he said.

He sees several factors which might limit the scope of what the US can realistically achieve.

"If a weak government is formed in Turkey, coupled with anxiety over the upsurge of [Islamic] fundamentalists - these two factors may inhibit the US from exerting the necessary pressure. Another assumption could also be that, because of the presidential elections, the [Clinton] administration may be inhibited from exerting any pressure on the Greek Cypriot side, or on Greece."

Some Greek Cypriot politicians believe that, because the pro-Islamist Welfare Party came top in Turkey's elections, albeit by a narrow margin, the US will pursue a cautious policy on Cyprus, for fear of undermining secular Turkish parties. Equally, there is a sizeable Greek-American vote up for grabs in November's elections.

Mr Holbrooke lost valuable time for making progress on Cyprus last month when military tension between Greece and Turkey rose sharply in a dispute over a group of islets in the Aegean Sea. Mr Holbrooke helped calm that dispute.

The Cyprus government is keen to see US involvement because previous efforts, conducted under United Nations auspices, have repeatedly ended in deadlock.

One obstacle has been the insistence of the self-styled Turkish Cypriot state - an entity which is recognised only by Turkey - on full sovereignty for itself, though in a federated Cyprus. Greek Cypriot leaders, backed by UN resolutions, want the restoration of Cyprus as a bicommunal but undivided, sovereign country.

About 30,000 Turkish troops occupy the northern third of Cyprus, and the transfer of almost all Greeks and Turks between north and south since 1974 has resulted in the creation of two "ethnically pure" regions. This trend has been deepened by the settlement of thousands of Turks from Anatolia in the north.

Mr Clerides said the US and European Union must press Turkey for specific commitments to end the stalemate.

The EU has promised to open membership talks with Cyprus six months after the end of the Inter-Governmental Conference on internal EU reform. This conference opens next month and is expected to finish around mid-1997, meaning that Cyprus might start its accession talks in early 1998.

Economists do not expect the talks to last much more than two years and say Cyprus could be ready for full membership by 2000 or 2001. Crucially, the EU has not made Cyprus's entry conditional on a settlement of the island's political dispute.

Greek Cypriot officials hope that a clear timetable for joining the EU will impress on Turkish politicians the need to finally start working for a political settlement. They say there are obvious economic and security advantages for Turkish Cypriots in joining the south in the EU.

"Whether you are a Greek or Turkish Cypriot, you will be a European. This is a safeguard for the individual, security in the broadest sense," said the Foreign Minister, Alecos Michaelides.