'Don't know' voters make Irish poll on EU too close to call

Supporters of the Nice Treaty have an opinion poll lead ahead of this weekend's crucial Irish referendum, but still face the task of convincing almost one in four voters who remain undecided.

Saturday's vote could derail the EU's plans to admit 10 more nations in 2004 and, while the "yes" campaign has gained the initiative, the poll findings are similar to those just before the last referendum – which rejected the treaty.

Although buoyed by the latest survey, "yes" campaigners have identified two main objectives for the run-up to polling: persuading the "don't knows" and getting their supporters out to vote on Saturday.

The IMS poll published by the Sunday Independent showed 41 per cent in favour of the treaty, 27 per cent opposed, 8 per cent not voting and 24 per cent undecided.

That lead looks convincing, but the number of those who are undecided, and the poor turn-out last time among suppporters of the treaty, leaves the result in the balance. Professor Richard Sinnott of University College, Dublin, said: "The figures look not very different from those in The Irish Times before the last referendum. From the government's point of view there is a lot of work to be done."

Both sides have stepped up their campaigning in the run-up to the referendum and the Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern, yesterday denounced as "damn lies" a "no" poster which claimed Nice would force Ireland to sign up to a European army. "To have posters around town saying vote 'no' because of neutrality is lies, it's blatant, damn lies," said Mr Ahern, who won a declaration on Ireland's prized neutrality from EU leaders earlier this year.

Both sides have blanketed Ireland with posters ranging from simple appeals to vote "yes" or "no" to more controversial messages. One for the youth wing of mainstream party Fine Gael promoting a "yes" vote shows a couple in a close embrace with the slogan: "It's better to be inside."

A graphic anti-Nice poster shows a young man with a gun to his head and carries the message "Don't be bullied", urging those who rejected the treaty in June not to change their vote. Ireland is the only EU country to hold a referendum on Nice and did so for constitutional reasons.

The treaty, which amends the number of votes and seats member states have in the EU Council of Ministers and the European Parliament and the number of commissioners they send to Brussels, must be rubber-stamped by all member states. Without Nice, the EU would continue to be governed by the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty, which provides for a maximum of 20 members.

There were more warnings yesterday of the implications of a "no" vote. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Prime Minister of Denmark, which holds the EU presidency, said: "There is no Plan B and there's no reason to hide that if the Irish reject the Nice Treaty once again we're facing an unprecedented and unpredictable crisis."

A "no" vote would probably mean the candidates for EU membership have to wait until an inquiry chaired by former French president Valery Giscard d'Estaing has completed drafting a proposed EU constitution, and existing member states have agreed and ratified a new treaty.