Swedes choose to ignore Lamont's euro warnings

Lord Lamont of Lerwick, was pulling no punches yesterday in a Stockholm hotel as he damned the euro as "dangerous" and demanded a halt to Europe's "mindless, needless integration".

But the appearance by the former Tory Chancellor and eurosceptic is unlikely to sway many voters before Sweden's referendum on whether to join the euro. Despite advance billing, Lord Lamont's appearance attracted an audience of just 15 people.

With less than two weeks to go before polling on 14 September, and the "no" campaign ahead in the polls, the stakes are high. The result will be seen as a key test of the popularity of the single currency, and a "no" would deal the coup de grâce to Tony Blair's lingering hopes of holding a referendum in Britain soon.

Never notably lucky in office, Lord Lamont may have arrived in Stockholm just as the tide is beginning to turn. For weeks the "no" side has enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls as the "yes" supporters, led by the Prime Minister Göran Persson, had begun to look increasingly desperate.

But yesterday they received their first good news for some time in a Gallup poll which showed the "no" supporters' lead shrinking to 8 points from 15 one week ago. Significantly 20 per cent remain undecided.

For Mr Persson and his backers this is a rare and welcome ray of light. Now "yes" supporters are putting their faith in the "late surge" theory which at least has some historical precedent.

When in 1994, the Swedes voted to join the EU, they did so only narrowly (53 per cent to 47 per cent) and after the "no" side had the lead for most of the campaign.

But even Lord Lamont acknowledges the possibility of a yes vote, warning that it would have repercussions in Britain. As he put it: "If, despite the polls, it emerged that Sweden was going to join the euro, the feeling would be created in Britain that it is possible to change opinions."

"Yes" supporters know they should be in a commanding position because they have much of the establishment, and greater resources, behind them. Industrial giants including Volvo, Scania and Ericsson support euro membership.

Yesterday Wanja Lundby-Wedin, chairwoman of Sweden's Trade Union Con- federation, which is officially neutral in the campaign, backed the currency. One pro-euro initiative has united unions and employers who have pledged to create a new economic council.

But Sweden is hopelessly split. The backing of Electrolux for the "no" campaign illustrates that not all big business is on side. Hundreds of thousands of voters remain undecided. Even Mattias Svensson, press officer for one of the myriad groups opposed to the euro admits that he made up his mind quite recently.

Mr Persson's social democratic government has huge divisions with five of his 22 cabinet ministers against, including the deputy prime minister and the industry minister. For a premier who relishes the nickname "he who decides" it is a damaging spectacle.

Such an open rebellion illustrates how reluctant Swedes are to compromise their independence. Another special factor in Sweden is the voters' attachment to their generous welfare state, particularly among women who have proved especially sceptical. Opponents of the euro have learned the lesson from Denmark where the "no" campaign convinced many that the single currency was a threat to the social security system.

For the "yes" side it has been hard to make the counter-argument that, Swedes will be better able to afford the welfare state inside the euro than outside. Sweden, with growth of 2 per cent and unemployment of 4 per cent, is performing better than most big eurozone economies.

Added to that is the row in Brussels over the euro's rulebook which is being flouted by France and Germany. Most of all the supporters of the euro have to combat the sentiment that a "no" is a safe vote because Sweden could always change its mind. To combat this argument, Mr Persson warned voters that if they were to reject the euro this time round they would then not get another chance to join the currency until 2013 at the earliest.

Last night Mr Persson was exuding new-found confidence at the launch of an art catalogue at Bukowski's auction house in Stockholm's elegant Berzelii Park. As he toured the exhibition, stopping in front of a large white composition in fabric, he insisted that the "yes" side can still prevail. "We will win it," he said bluntly.

Outside not everyone was sure. "I'll make up my mind on the day," say Richard Cahlen, a Swede whose views seem to be broadly representative of many voters, "and I'll do it by tossing a coin."