Arab states point to Israel as main source of regional instability

Arab states all agree that there is one country in the region that poses a risk to regional stability through its possession of weapons of mass destruction. But they are thinking of Israel, not Iraq.

Arab leaders keep telling George Bush the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must be resolved before America can return to its decade-old fight with Saddam Hussein.

So far, President Saddam has played the Arab masses through his support of the Palestinian intifada, stoking up anti-American feeling.

Now the region's leaders, who had good relations with America until the 11 September attacks, are worried. Principal allies such as Saudi Arabia, which offered its bases to the US-led coalition in the Gulf War, are showing no such willingness this time.

The Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, stressed on Wednesday that not a single Arab state wanted war.

Speaking the day after the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, argued in favour of a swift, pre-emptive strike against Iraq, the Egyptian leader said that an attack would cause chaos throughout the Middle East.

Jordan, which sat on the fence throughout the Gulf War, has denied that its territory would be used as a launch pad against Iraq.

The Jordanian monarch, King Abdullah, said last month after talking to Tony Blair that "in the light of the failure to move the Israeli-Palestinian process forward, military action against Iraq would really open Pandora's box".

Saudi Arabia this week joined the chorus, openly expressing doubts about the wisdom of US military action.

Even the Kuwaitis, who suffered the indignity of Iraqi occupation more than 10 years ago, are nervous.

It could be that the Arab leaders, who are no admirers of President Saddam, are expressing themselves differ-ently in private talks with the American administration.

But in a region where longevity and continuity are features of the ruling elites, their first concern is self-preservation.