Bus bombing puts exile of Arafat back on Israel's agenda

As Ariel Sharon, Israel's Prime Minister, urgently summoned his Cabinet yesterday to discuss his next move after the death of 19 Israelis in a suicide bombing, one question loomed above all others. Will Israel now send Yasser Arafat into exile?

Israel came within a hair's breadth of deporting the Palestinian leader after a wave of bombing attacks in March, but it held back after the United States and Britain brokered a deal in which the Israelis lifted a siege against Mr Arafat in return for imprisoning six Palestinian militants in a West Bank jail under Anglo- American supervision.

Yesterday Israeli government officials were reportedly saying there had – for now – been no change to thedecision not to send Mr Arafat into exile. But that may be because Israel is waiting to hear President George Bush's policy speech on the Middle East, which is expected today, before deciding on its next move.

President Bush is expected to announce that the Secretary of State, Colin Powell, will return to the region to push forward a plan for the establishment of an interim Palestinian state.

Foreign and Palestinian sources were in no doubt yesterday that Mr Arafat's exile is back on Israel's agenda.

This is opposed by the Europeans. Though they have little liking for him, they see no alternative Palestinian leader, and fear that chaos could engulf the occupied territories if he is thrown out, destroying the last vestige of hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the foreseeable future.

Until recently, this view was shared by the US State Department. But the Bush administration is immersed in a ferocious internal conflict over its policy in the region, which has been brought to a head by Mr Bush's speech.

More hawkish elements – for example, within the Department of Defence, the Vice-President's office and the National Security Council – have concluded that the United States can no longer work with Mr Arafat, and must search for a new leadership. The signs are that their view is gaining the upper hand. "There does appear to be an unofficial change in our position", said a Washington source.

Mr Sharon – who once expressed regret that Israeli forces did not kill his old adversary in Beirut in 1982 – has long pressed the international community to dump Mr Arafat. Israel has consistently held him responsible for suicide bombings, shrugging off evidence that the Palestinian security forces have been too crippled by Israeli military attacks to act effectively against the violent nationalist militias.

Exiling Mr Arafat could backfire on Israel. A tireless self-publicist and traveller, he would take the Palestinian cause to the world stage, especially in the uneasy Arab and Islamic countries. The corruption, ineptitude and human rights violations that he has presided over in his Palestinian Authority (PA) have long corroded his popularity among 3.6 million Palestinians enclosed behind Israeli barbed wire, roadblocks and fences in the occupied territories.

But an Arafat in enforced exile would soon be seen as a martyr. His replacement would be likely to struggle to win broad support – although this may be to the advantage of Israel. "Don't forget that Yasser Arafat is the head of the PLO and the PA and Fatah," said Jihad al-Wazir, a Palestinian deputy minister. "He is the irrefutable leader. Anyone else would have limited legitimacy."

Mr Sharon's critics abroad would see Mr Arafat's exile as further evidence that the Israeli leader is systematically destroying all chances of a viable Palestinian state by banishing the man who personifies Palestinian nationalist aspirations. This reading of events has been fortified by the growing list of pre-conditions that the Prime Minister is insisting must be fulfilled before Israel will participate in the diplomatic process.

In his trip to Washington and London, Tony Blair and, to a lesser extent, the Americans pressed Mr Sharon to offer the Palestinians a "political horizon", and to move forward diplomatically in tandem with moves by the Palestinians to address Israel's demands for reforms and a crackdown on violence. But Mr Sharon's position appears to have hardened. His list of pre-conditions has lengthened. On his return to Israel from Washington, he told his Cabinet that Israel would not take part in negotiations until the Palestinians end attacks and implement "substantial reforms in all facets of life", including the electoral process. Israel, he said, would not discuss its future in any international frameworks of any kind. There would be no return to the 1967 borders.