Downing Street seizes on Iraq weapons report to fuel war talk

A report by a think-tank on Iraq's nuclear capability was seized on by Downing Street yesterday as "evidence" of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein and the need to take military action.

The report concedes, though, that Iraq's military capability, including weapons of mass destruction, is far weaker now than it was before the Gulf War in 1991.

The study by the International Institute of Strategic Studies maintained Iraq would be able to produce a crude nuclear device if it received sufficient weapons-grade material and extensive help from a foreign source. It admitted that "there is no evidence that Iraq had done so." Developing its own bomb would take several years and "how such a weapon can be delivered and its effectiveness remains open to question". The report also concluded Iraq's chemical, biological and ballistic missile programmes were all far less potent now than 11 years ago.

The IISS report, produced in eight weeks, has been extensively promoted by Downing Street as a comprehensive exposé of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. The Prime Minister's official spokesman described it as "a powerful picture of a highly unstable regime" and added it showed the world was waking up to the dangers posed by Saddam Hussein.

Defence experts and opposition politicians were unconvinced, saying the report failed to provide the "smoking gun" Downing Street claimed it would.

Paul Beaver, of Jane's Defence Weekly, said "There's nothing new here, no killer fact that makes me believe we should go to war." The Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman, Menzies Campbell, said it contained "nothing startling, nor anything that could not have been inferred from Iraq's previous behaviour".

The Conservative defence spokesman, Bernard Jenkin, stated the report showed how little was known of what was going on inside Iraq, and urged the Government to publish its own much-trailed, but delayed. "dossier" that is meant to contain evidence that President Saddam presented a clear and present threat.

Tony Blair's spokesman said the government dossier would include intelligence material. It would be published shortly, but not this week. The position of the hawks on both sides of the Atlantic was further undermined by the CIA saying Iraq would take five to seven years to complete an indigenous nuclear programme.

Britain and France are working on a diplomatic solution intended to avert war. The two countries are drawing up a possible UN timetable with the aim of steering America away from an immediate military showdown with Baghdad.

France, which had been critical of those calling for war, took a step towards America and Britain when President Jacques Chirac said his government could join military action as long as the UN approved and if Iraq refused re-entry to weapons inspectors.

President Chirac said France would never accept military intervention to depose President Saddam for the "regime change" demanded by the Bush administration. He said that, after a " very long talk with Mr Blair", France and Britain were considering drafting a UN resolution that would give the Iraqi regime time – "a matter of one, two or three weeks" – to agree to admit inspectors.

If Iraq failed to respond, there should be a second security council resolution on US-led military action, he said. If the UN approved such punitive action, France would consider taking part. The French President said the statement of the US Vice-President, Dick Cheney, that UN inspections were worthless was highly damaging.

"In that case, you might as well simply say Mr Cheney is going off to fight the war by himself," he said. "If we say that inspections are not worth anything, why should they accept?"

Mr Blair will tell the Trades Union Congress today that President Saddam is an "international outlaw" at the head of the world's worst regime. He is expected to tell delegates: "In the face of evidence the Iraqi leader has chemical and biological weapons, evidence, too, that he is continuing his efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, we cannot stand by and do nothing."

Although the Prime Minister is expected to get a rough ride from the union delegates, a motion opposing all military action was narrowly defeated. The congress may now adopt a motion not opposing action if it was backed by the UN.

Geoff Hoon, the Secretary of State for Defence, gave more strong indication that British forces will take part in US-led military action. He said "The United States should not have to face it alone ... It is in the United Kingdom's national interest."