US sends heavy armour to Gulf as campaign grows

Signs that preparations for a new Gulf War are well under way were highlighted yesterday when America stepped up the movement of heavy armour to the Gulf.

The US Navy has booked a giant commercial transporter to take tanks, artillery, ammunition and back-up vehicles to the region. It is the third shipment of arms and military hardware in a month using commercial shipping. Military analysts said it showed the US Navy had probably exhausted the capacity of its own fleet and resorted to the open market.

The shipment is the latest step in a process that has continued while public debate ebbs and flows over an attack.

Military commanders in America and Britain have been highly sceptical of the arguments put forward by hawks in the Bush administration for another Gulf conflict. But they have also been aware that George Bush is likely to plump for war and they will have to produce a plan that would win it with the lowest number of allied casualties.

This time around the strategists face more constraints, primarily antipathy to an attack launched from Arab states that backed the war against Saddam Hussein 10 years ago. The most important dissenter is Saudi Arabia. The decision by the West's staunchest Arab ally in the region to veto the use of its territory for an attack on Iraq has meant the planning has had to be modified.

Saudi Arabia was the launch-pad for Western forces in the Gulf War and played an important role in later actions against Iraq. American and British warplanes still use the kingdom to patrol the southern no-fly zone. But now Washington and London find they cannot use the 500-mile Saudi-Iraq border for a main armoured land thrust. Nor can they use the technically advanced Prince Sultan air base, set up to be a nerve centre for precisely this kind of air war.

A replacement for Prince Sultan has been found at Al-Udeid, in Qatar, which has been the scene of a concerted US construction programme. The base has a 12,500ft runway and hangars, fortified against chemical and biological attacks, for 120 aircraft. There are four warehouses with enough tanks and armour for a mechanised brigade.

Kuwait has also expressed disquiet about an attack on Iraq. But it is likely to be the place from which the West would attack in the south. Al-Jaber air base already hosts dozens of USAF F-117 Stealth fighters, A-10 Thunderbolts, FA-18 Hornets and F-16s. Another air base, Ali al-Salem, is used by RAF Tornados.

Thirty-five miles from the Iraqi border is the Kuwaiti military complex, an obvious base for land operations. America has 8,000 troops already stationed there and there is space for another 30,000. The cutting edge of the armour would be provided by the US Army's Abrams tanks and Britain's Challenger IIs. But the British tanks would have to be refitted for desert conditions, at an estimated cost of £90m.

A northern attack into Iraq would be likely to come through Turkey. Ankara has also spoken out against a war, but the Americans believe it will come on board. The air base at Incirlik holds US F-16s and RAF Jaguars, and is used to patrol the northern no-fly zone.

Western troops might be able to set up in the semi- autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq, but there are political and diplomatic sensitivities over the area.

Bahrain would be an ideal base for air and naval operations. The RAF used it extensively during the Gulf War, and would want to do so again if the ruler can be persuaded to join an anti-Saddam coalition. As the Afghan campaign has shown, America is able, with air-to-air refuelling provided by the British, to mount sustained bombing raids with its B-52, B-1 and B-2 Stealth aircraft. The British Indian Ocean base at Diego Garcia is a prime launch-pad, but the USAF is also able to fly directly from its home bases. A war against Iraq would also be likely to involve more use of unmanned aircraft. Global Hawks can be launched from both Diego Garcia and America, while the smaller Predators have to be based locally.

Facing this, Iraq has about 300,000 troops, 100,000 of whom are better equipped and led by the Republican Guard. Its armoured strength comprises about 2,000 ageing Russian tanks. The air force has about 300 jets, also elderly, and several dozen Scud B missiles.

Strategists believe President Saddam would be likely to deploy his troops in built-up areas to maximise the difficulty for an attacker of avoiding civilian casualties. As a last resort, he might even use chemical weapons.