Leading article: How to weather the financial storms
Latest in Leading Articles
Opinion blogs
Paul Volcker stands tall against the banking lobby
Why is Europe, which likes to present itself as an opponent of speculative "Anglo-Saxon" finance, li...
“Not growing inequality”
What do we want? “A fairer sharing of rewards not growing inequality.” Well said, Ed Mil...
A defence of competition in health care
Just when you thought he was six feet under and all forgotten, Andrew Lansley comes bouncing back up...
The economic news around much of the rich world is causing policymakers sleepless nights, but there was at least one source of optimism out there yesterday. According to Germany's Federal Statistics Office, the eurozone's largest economy is growing at its fastest rate since 1996. German gross national product expanded by 1.5 per cent in the first three months of this year – double the predictions of many analysts.
So why is Germany bucking the miserable trend? The country seems to be benefiting from labour market reforms of recent years and a resurgence of exports. Unemployment has fallen and consumer demand has risen. Analysts are also arguing that the milder weather in January and February boosted the domestic construction industry.
We must not get carried away. Schadenfreude in Berlin at the calamity that has befallen the "Anglo-Saxon" economies would be a most inappropriate reaction. German investment banks have lost a lot of money in the financial meltdown, thanks to their foolish investments in US sub-prime mortgage packages. And even after the necessary recalculations are made in the light of this surge in output, German growth is still projected to be lower in 2008 than it was in 2007. The credit crunch and higher commodity prices will see to that. Moreover, the country is particularly vulnerable to a decline in demand for German products in the US. And the rising value of the euro will act to depress exports.
But, nevertheless, Germany does seem to be proving rather more resilient in the face of these malign economic forces than many other European countries, notably Britain. And these latest figures should give us pause to consider the merits of a balanced economy. One of the conventional wisdoms that has been challenged by the credit crisis is the strategic emphasis we in the UK have put on financial services. The sector now accounts for almost 10 per cent of output. That was beneficial in the credit boom. But we are feeling the painful consequences in the present bust.
There is a broader point here. As the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, noted recently, it is worrying that all our best graduates flock into the City, rather than other career paths. The German state education system has traditionally counterbalanced the lure of finance by placing a strong emphasis on technical training and apprenticeships. We, on the other hand, have been content to let raw market forces decide career options.
Winston Churchill remarked that he would rather see finance less proud and industry more content. That would seem a sensible prescription for the British economy once the worst of this crisis is out of the way.
- 1 Kate Allen: It's time for America to put an end to this shameful scandal
- 2 Rhodri Marsden: What we like and what we don't like are often closer than you'd think
- 3 The Daily Cartoon
- 4 Yasmin Alibhai-Brown: We've become experts at sex – but losers at love
- 5 Patrick Cockburn: All the evidence points to sectarian civil war in Syria, but no one wants to admit it
- 6 Robert Fisk: John McCarthy knows the value of history
- 7 Robert Fisk: Could there be some bad guys among the rebels too?
- 1 Kate Allen: It's time for America to put an end to this shameful scandal
- 2 Spotify: 1 million plays, £108 return
- 3 Chemotherapy is 'safe during pregnancy'
- 4 Rhodri Marsden: What we like and what we don't like are often closer than you'd think
- 5 BBC to issue global apology for documentaries that broke rules
- 6 Lightning kills an entire football team
- 7 I was born to be a killer. Every night I see the Devil in my dreams
- 8 Henry does it his way, ending on a high note
- 9 Modern lovers: The 'sexual body warriors' and pioneers transforming 21st-century relationships
- 10 Redknapp hints at same old faces for England
Free trial of new Independent iPad app
Get your daily dose of the best of British journalism, sponsored by American Airlines
Win a three-week coastal jaunt
Spend three weeks exploring every nook and cranny of gorgeous Atlantic Canada.
Amazing restaurant offers
Three glasses of free champagne and a special menu at 46 top London restaurants.
Latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
Commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.
Career Services
Day In a Page
Apple admits it has a human rights problem
James Lawton: AVB looks all at sea
Procrastination: Not now – I'm busy
Silent revolution at the Baftas
The diva who had – and lost – it all




Comments