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IF YOU believe in the notion of inevitable upsets, this weekend offers a double helping of potential gambles with Kenya available at 4- 1 (with Stanley and the Tote) to beat Zimbabwe, and Scotland available at 20-1 with the Tote to beat Australia.

Neither wager is advised. The Kenyans do have a considerably better chance than the Scots, but they still cannot be backed with any confidence, having failed to beat Zimbabwe in nine previous one-day meetings. Nothing in the warm-up matches or run-up to the World Cup has happened to suggest a change in fortunes. Scotland do not have a hope but the hopelessly patriotic and the clinically insane should obviously get to the Tote quickly.

The weekend's other two matches are tighter affairs but there is a strong case for backing South Africa to beat India. Not only are they the form team, the tournament favourites and strong in all areas, they have won 18 of their 27 previous one-day matches with India, including all five on neutral grounds. Pakistan may have temperament problems, but should beat the West Indies, who have had recent form and injury problems of their own.

None of the prices on offer are that attractive and you could do worse than investing in a four-fold accumulator on South Africa, Zimbabwe, Australia and Pakistan, at odds amounting to a shade more than 3-1.

Some good value bets can be made on the top scorers in individual games. Australia's Mark Waugh looks great value at around 9-4 (generally) against Scotland. Kenya may not win, but a small investment on the talented and occasionally prolific Steve Tikolo to top score (at 100-30, generally) might pay dividends. Brian Lara (3-1) does not offer value, as several of the Pakistanis could outdo him. India's Sachin Tendulkar (around 9-4) might fare a little better against South Africa.



South Africa 1-2 1-2 8-15 1-2 4-9

India 6-4 6-4 11-8 6-4 13-8

Zimbabwe 2-7 1-5 2-9 1-7 1-7

Kenya 5-2 10-3 3-1 4-1 4-1



Australia 1-50 1-66 1-33 1-33 1-80

Scotland 14-1 16-1 12-1 12-1 20-1

Pakistan 4-7 8-13 4-7 4-7 8-13

West Indies 5-4 6-5 5-4 5-4 6-5

C Coral H William Hill L Ladbrokes S Stanley T Tote