Cricket: World Cup - South Africa to shade it by a cool head

IT IS A difficult call to make at such a crucial stage but South Africa just look to have the edge in this tournament. The weight of that statement will be measured today when they play Australia in a match which will decide the semi-final make-up after four long weeks.

This is a fitting encounter for such a stage, between two formidable sides who are not only well balanced for the one-day game, and particularly this, its highest kind, but who also have impressively talented individuals who are in form at exactly the right time. Australia should not be discounted because they are blessed with the ability and the will to win but I am tipping South Africa to shade it.

The team coached by Bob Woolmer have done almost everything asked of them, the only blip coming against Zimbawbe when their progress was already assured. They have won the close matches and, as I have mentioned before, they have genuine all-rounders all the way down the order. They have beaten Pakistan. It can be difficult to turn round one-day games but South Africa have repeatedly shown they can do it.

But Australia have performed well enough fully to have deserved the opportunity to go further. To say they are coming good, considering what they did to West Indies and India and the professional way they rebuffed the nagging threat of Zimbabwe, might be an understatement.

Giving Glenn McGrath the new ball has obviously been an integral part of their refreshed strategy and the support of Damien Fleming and Paul Reiffel makes them a potent combination at any time of the innings. This has meant no place for Adam Dale, who was expected to be such a menace on English pitches, but they have not needed him.

The supposed weakness in their bowling attack is the fifth bowler, a strength enjoyed by South Africa. They have overcome this so far. But the apparent lack of form of Shane Warne has also been singled out, and it is perilous to do this. True, Warne has gone for a few and he isn't quite giving the ball the huge rip he used to, but it would still be daft to take him for granted.

The pitches have hardly favoured him and batsmen have grown more audacious in going for him. But it was noticeable at Lord's that it was the left- handers who went for the big shots, always hitting with the spin.

He has never had a big googly like, say Stuart MacGill. It has always been his relentless accuracy and length which has set him apart. Warne's job is also made more difficult without the benefit of close fields and a total of 450 to protect him, as he so often has had in five-day cricket. But he is a proven big game player and he isn't being written off in this department.

Australia's batting, too, has begun to gel. Adam Gilchrist has struggled against the moving ball, but Mark Waugh has begun to look resplendent. The middle order is not prone to panic either and Michael Bevan and Tom Moody look relaxed and calm, as if they know their jobs.

It is a pity in many ways that the tournament is reaching its latest stages without India. Their batsmen have been splendid and their fans too have brought a new dimension to this World Cup. The incessant passion shown by India's followers as well as those of Pakistan will be one of the abiding memories. Believe me, such fervent support helps the players in the middle.

England have had their own dedicated supporters in recent years on tour with the advent of the Barmy Army. They are slightly different in the way they express their devotion to the cause, but the Barmy Army probably don't mind as much when their side lose.

It has all brought spectacle and excitement. It has been noisy and vibrant and any evidence brought forward to suggest that they are not actually following the game can be rebutted by their cheering of every shot, every ball, graded on whether the former goes for four or a single or the latter beats the bat or offers a chance.

Having seen all this it will be interesting to witness the final at Lord's, to see what the passion quotient is like there. Will banners and passion be permitted?

If the World Cup so far has lacked anything (England's participation apart) it is close finishes. Right throughout, they have for some reason been thin on the ground. There were only two in the group stages, there was only one in the early sparring of the Super Sixes. There is still time for that to change at Headingley today, and in either of the semi- finals.

The big teams are up for it, the ones we suspected would be there at the climax. Like I said, it is hard call but I'm calling South Africa.