The data behind James Anderson’s Ashes return as Moeen Ali bats at number three

The PA news agency looks at the statistical significance of both decisions.

England have put their faith in James Anderson (left) and Moeen Ali at Old Trafford (David Davies/Mike Egerton/PA)

James Anderson has got the nod to return to England’s Ashes line-up on his home ground of Old Trafford, while Moeen Ali will bat at number three in an otherwise-unchanged side.

Here, the PA news agency looks at the statistical significance of both decisions.

“Bowling from the James Anderson End…”

Anderson took only three wickets in the first two Tests of this series before sitting out at Headingley but his return at his home for his 23-year county career, where he has even emulated fellow Lancashire and England seam bowling great Brian Statham by having an end named after him, was surely inevitable.

His Test record on the ground adds to his case, with 37 wickets at an average of 22.03 in his 10 previous appearances.

That does not include any five-wicket innings, though he took four for 38 – and seven for 54 in the match – against South Africa in 2017 and another four-wicket haul against New Zealand in 2008.

It will be only Anderson’s second Ashes Test at Old Trafford. The first, a decade ago, saw him toil at the hands of centurion Michael Clarke in the first innings before picking up two wickets in a frantic second innings of declaration batting as Australia tried in vain to beat the rain.

Ollie Robinson’s back spasms during the third Test made him the obvious fall guy, though he has a creditable 10 wickets at 28.40 in the current series and took four for 43 in last year’s Old Trafford win over South Africa.

Stuart Broad has an even better record than Anderson in Old Trafford Tests, with 44 wickets at 19.25 including two six-wicket hauls, and is the leading wicket-taker in this series with 16 at 24.93.

That is one wicket more than Australia captain Pat Cummins, while Mitchell Starc has 13. Nathan Lyon (nine) and Josh Hazlewood (eight) follow Robinson on that list, with the next places occupied by two England seamers who only came in at Headingley but quickly cemented their places.

Mark Wood produced astonishing pace to take five for 34 in the first innings and seven in the match, while he blazed 24 runs in England’s first innings and 16 in the second to see them over the line along with fellow series debutant Chris Woakes.

The Warwickshire all-rounder took three wickets in each innings and finished unbeaten on 32 as he struck the winning runs. Woakes also has 23 wickets at 18.48 in five Old Trafford Tests, with Wood set to play his first.

Promotion for Moeen

Moeen put his hand up to bat at number three in the second innings at Headingley and though he made just five, the experiment will be repeated.

It solves an England conundrum in Ollie Pope’s absence, with Harry Brook having made just three in the first innings, while Joe Root is most comfortable at number four, but has not been a productive spot for Moeen in Tests.

He has batted everywhere in the top nine in his 66 games, but mainly at six, seven or eight. That means some small statistical samples elsewhere but at number three he averages 13.14, consisting of 92 runs in seven innings. A strike rate of 32.39 is also hardly in keeping with England’s aggressive philosophy.

September 2018’s Test against India at the Oval accounts for 70 of his runs at number three, with scores of 50 and 20. He made nine against them in the previous Test and five in 2016, batting at three for the second innings only on each occasion, and a first-ball duck followed by three against Sri Lanka in Galle in 2018.

He averages 12.75 at number two but taking his six innings as an opener overall, that average of 14 leaves number three as his lowest anywhere in the order. His best is 51.20 at number four, while in his regular positions he averages 21.50 at number six, 33.48 at seven and 25.93 at eight, with an overall Test average of 27.82.