Lithuania vs England: Last chance to impress, says Roy Hodgson

'The qualification is a league but when you get there you just need that little bit of luck. We’ve just seen it with rugby.'

(Getty Images)

There is no one in England more qualified to be empathetic towards Stuart Lancaster than Roy Hodgson. Like the national rugby coach he knows what it is to be knocked out of a World Cup before the group stages are even complete. So it was with feeling that Hodgson looked ahead to England’s next football tournament after a ninth successive European Championship qualifying victory, and stressed the importance of a flying start.

In Brazil two years ago England lost their first two games, against Italy and Uruguay by slim margins making the final match, against Costa Rica, as redundant as England’s Rugby World Cup tie against Uruguay last night. In the build-up to the tournament Hodgson searched for the right starting XI, but a combination of experiments and injuries meant the team that started against Italy had never played together. Hodgson has said there was too much experimenting in friendlies against opposition of the quality that awaited them in the World Cup.

Hodgson has said he will not make that mistake again. The final qualifier against Lithuania, he said after Friday’s defeat of Estonia, “maybe the last game when I could happily give people a chance”. He added, looking ahead to next month’s friendlies with Spain and France, which are followed by games against Germany and, probably, Holland, “everybody knows they have to be fighting for a place in what I consider my first XI against Spain”.

Looking further forward to next summer Hodgson said: “Tournaments are three knockout matches. The qualification is a league but when you get there you just need that little bit of luck.

“We’ve just seen it with rugby. It’s 14 weeks of preparation and four years of working with the team and you come across Wales. I don’t know much about rugby, but I always thought that Wales were the same sort of level as England. You don’t win that game and it puts you under pressure for the second match against Australia, who are the second-favourites. After that everything is woeful and disastrous.

“That is how simple tournaments are. For all your preparation and all your work, if you get there and play brilliantly in the first game but lose it to a dodgy penalty, you’re a disaster. That is what we’ve understood. We didn’t play badly against Italy [in Brazil 2014], but we lost and after that it’s downhill.

“What will give us a better chance [at Euro 16] is winning the first game – or certainly not losing it. We’ll also be a further year down the road working on the things we like to work on, our attacking and defending, and some of the young players we believe in will be a year older, a year more experienced.”

Hodgson began building for next summer’s finals the day after England lost to Uruguay in São Paulo. The team that played Costa Rica in the final group game looked to the future. It featured five players who started on Friday (Ross Barkley, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, Adam Lallana and James Milner) plus three who would be in contention but for injury (Jack Wilshere, Luke Shaw and Daniel Sturridge). Of the XI that began the World Cup against Italy only three players (Joe Hart, Raheem Sterling and Cahill) started against Estonia.

Raheem Sterling celebrates with Jamie Vardy after scoring against Estonia (Getty Images)

When England went to Switzerland, their main group rivals, and won convincingly, Hodgson had the luxury of knowing he had silenced the post-World Cup criticism, and could start planning for France secure in the knowledge qualification was already probable. He has thus been able to bring through players such as Barkley, Nathaniel Clyne, Fabian Delph, Harry Kane, Ryan Mason, Jamie Vardy, Jonjo Shelvey and, before his injury, Shaw.

Shelvey, Vardy and Jack Butland are all expected to start in Vilnius, with Phil Jones and Phil Jagielka as centrehalves, but the focus is likely to be on Barkley in the hope he can build on Friday’s display. Hodgson is very aware of his potential – he gave Barkley his international debut at 19 – but also of the need to bring him through carefully.

“He is maturing and getting better all the time,” the manager said. “Football at the highest level is about decision-making. What you want your talented players, like Ross and Raheem Sterling to do, is to choose the good moments when they put the ball at risk and they try things, and the moments when really it is doomed to failure so they keep hold of the ball. I thought his decision-making was very good [against Estonia].”

Barkley’s main rival to start is probably Wilshere, whose injuries underline why Hodgson said he is not going to consider a preferred Euro ’16 starting XI, or even a squad, until much nearer the date.

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GLENN MOORE'S ENGLAND XI

(4-2-3-1) Hart; Clyne, Cahill, Smalling, Baines; Henderson, Wilshere; Walcott, Rooney, Sterling; Kane.

This assumes Luke Shaw does not regain match sharpness in time, but Leighton Baines does, and everyone else is fit (which is highly unlikely to be the case).

Hodgson has a lot of options in midfield and attack and selection may depend on the opposition. In particular, should Walcott continue to progress as a central striker at Arsenal, the front four could be Walcott at centre-forward with Sturridge and Sterling on the flanks and Rooney in the hole. Or Rooney could lead the line with Barkley behind him. Alternatively Hodgson may play a more solid 4-3-3 with Rooney centre-forward, Milner, Wilshere and Henderson in midfield, and Walcott, Barkley and Kane omitted.