How Wales' 2018 World Cup dream could be ended by Neil Taylor's red card against Ireland

Fairplay points could matter with Chris Coleman's side hoping to win a play-off place

Wales full-back Neil Taylor was sent off for a tackle on Ireland's Seamus Coleman in March (Getty)

Wales host the Republic of Ireland on Monday night knowing that they cannot afford to lose if they want to wrap up a place in the World Cup play-offs.

Chris Coleman's side could still automatically qualify for their first finals since 1958 too, should they win while Group D leaders Serbia lose at home to Georgia.

That is the ideal scenario, yet there is also a nightmare one too. Wales could finish as runners-up yet still miss out on the play-offs by virtue of being the worst second-placed team.

Worse still, they could miss out because of their disciplinary record - seven months after Neil Taylor's red card for a controversial tackle on Ireland's Seamus Coleman.

How does it work?

As there are nine qualifying groups but only eight teams can progress through to the play-offs, the second-placed team with the worst record misses out.

Only matches against teams ranked from first to fifth in the group are counted when comparing second-placed teams.

Who could miss out?

The current ranking of the second-placed teams (Wikipedia)

Wales, Croatia and Slovakia are the three teams with a realistic chance of finishing as the worst runners-up and missing out on the play-offs.

Wales play the Republic of Ireland at home, Croatia play Ukraine away while Slovakia have completed their qualification campaign, finishing as runners-up to England in Group F.

If both Wales and Croatia win, they progress to the play-offs with Slovakia dropping out. However, if one of them draws, Slovakia progress.

If both Wales and Croatia draw, then the two will be level on points and goal difference, with number of goals scored deciding which of them progresses.

Wales have currently scored one goal more than Croatia, but if Croatia score one goal more than Wales and still draw - e.g. if Wales draw 0-0 and Croatia draw 1-1, or if Wales draw 1-1 and Croatia draw 2-2 etc. - then their records will be identical.

What happens then?

If Wales and Croatia are level on points, goal difference and goals scored, the last play-off place would be decided by fairplay records.

Teams are 'awarded' -1 for a first yellow card, -3 for a second yellow card/indirect red card, -4 for a straight red card and -5 if a player receives a straight red card having already been shown a yellow.

As it stands, Wales’ total (-17) is four points worse off than Croatia’s (-13). Taylor’s straight red for his tackle on Coleman in Wales’ 0-0 draw with Ireland in March could, therefore, be said to be the difference.

What if Wales and Croatia are level on fairplay points?

In this scenario, the last play-off place comes down to ‘the drawing of lots’. A coin toss, essentially.

What about the Republic of Ireland?

The Republic of Ireland’s possible outcomes are much clearer. Martin O’Neill’s side must beat Wales to reach the play-offs. If they do not, they cannot qualify.

Ireland cannot finish as the 'worst' runner-up after Scotland failed to win in Slovenia on Sunday.

Likewise, if Ukraine beat Croatia, they too will take a play-off place.