World Cup 2014: England warning - No team has ever escaped group stage after losing first two games

History does not bode well for Roy's Boys, but apparently they do have a 12.9 per cent chance

Defeat to Uruguay has left England needing a scenario that has never happened before at a World Cup if they are to progress.

LIVE: Follow the latest news from Italy v Costa Rica

After losing 2-1 last night, Roy Hodgson's side are now looking to other results if they are to have any chance of reaching the knock-out phase. Italy must beat Costa Rica today and then beat Uruguay while England will need to beat Costa Rica, possibly by more than one goal.

With Italy the strongest team in Group D, the scenario doesn't seem beyond the realms of possibility, however no team has ever progressed through the group stage after losing their first two games.

Losing one is manageable, as Spain proved at the last tournament when they lost their opener and then went on to lift the trophy. But losing two has always been a step too far.

 

With England fans clinging on to desperate hope more than anything, analysts Bloomberg Sports have taken a more mathematical approach. According to their research, England have a 12.9 per cent chance of progression.

Whilst that's better than zero, stacked against the other teams in Group D, just how slim England's chances are stark.

According to their research Italy have an 86.4 per cent of going through, Costa Rica 53.5 per cent and England's conquerors Uruguay a 47.3 per cent chance of gracing the latter stages of the tournament.

Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?

Bleacher Report

Daily Quiz
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services

Day In a Page

The Greek referendum exposes a gaping hole at the heart of the European Union – its distinct lack of any genuine popular legitimacy

Gaping hole at the heart of the European Union

Treatment of Greece has shown up a lack of genuine legitimacy
Number of young homeless in Britain 'more than three times the official figures'

'Everything changed when I went to the hostel'

Number of young homeless people in Britain is 'more than three times the official figures'
Compton Cricket Club

Compton Cricket Club

Portraits of LA cricketers from notorious suburb to be displayed in London
London now the global money-laundering centre for the drug trade, says crime expert

Wlecome to London, drug money-laundering centre for the world

'Mexico is its heart and London is its head'
The Buddhist temple minutes from Centre Court that helps a winner keep on winning

The Buddhist temple minutes from Centre Court

It helps a winner keep on winning
Is this the future of flying: battery-powered planes made of plastic, and without flight decks?

Is this the future of flying?

Battery-powered planes made of plastic, and without flight decks
Isis are barbarians – but the Caliphate is a dream at the heart of all Muslim traditions

Isis are barbarians

but the Caliphate is an ancient Muslim ideal
The Brink's-Mat curse strikes again: three tons of stolen gold that brought only grief

Curse of Brink's Mat strikes again

Death of John 'Goldfinger' Palmer the latest killing related to 1983 heist
Greece debt crisis: 'The ministers talk to us about miracles' – why Greeks are cynical ahead of the bailout referendum

'The ministers talk to us about miracles'

Why Greeks are cynical ahead of the bailout referendum
Call of the wild: How science is learning to decode the way animals communicate

Call of the wild

How science is learning to decode the way animals communicate
Greece debt crisis: What happened to democracy when it’s a case of 'Vote Yes or else'?

'The economic collapse has happened. What is at risk now is democracy...'

If it doesn’t work in Europe, how is it supposed to work in India or the Middle East, asks Robert Fisk
The science of swearing: What lies behind the use of four-letter words?

The science of swearing

What lies behind the use of four-letter words?
The Real Stories of Migrant Britain: Clive fled from Zimbabwe - now it won't have him back

The Real Stories of Migrant Britain

Clive fled from Zimbabwe - now it won’t have him back
Africa on the menu: Three foodie friends want to popularise dishes from the continent

Africa on the menu

Three foodie friends want to popularise dishes from the hot new continent
Donna Karan is stepping down after 30 years - so who will fill the DKNY creator's boots?

Who will fill Donna Karan's boots?

The designer is stepping down as Chief Designer of DKNY after 30 years. Alexander Fury looks back at the career of 'America's Chanel'