Brian Viner: Nostradamus knew nothing of the woes of Leeds United

'Elland Road, which used to be a fortress, is now a bouncy castle'

Is it just me, in a state of lightheadedness at Everton's ascent from base camp almost to the summit, or is the Premiership table this season more unpredictable than it has ever been?

Admittedly, there's unpredictable and unpredictable. Arsenal top and Manchester United second, after 18 games, would not exactly have stretched Nostradamus. But who, in August, would have staked money on Middlesbrough and Southampton being the only two teams unbeaten at home, come mid-December? Probably not even Steve McClaren and Gordon Strachan. And this unpredictability even stretches beyond the Premiership. I recently complimented Harry Redknapp on leaving so much clear blue water between Portsmouth and everyone else at the top of the Nationwide First Division.

"You were 16-1 at the start of the season, Harry," I said. He looked downright offended. "Thirty-threes," he said.

I have a weakness for football league tables and can scrutinise them for hours with a pleasure born partly of my uselessness at maths. Double Maths at school lasted 90 minutes, and I was the Geoff Nulty of those 90 minutes, willing but not very able. So to look at a conglomeration of 260 numbers, some of them with minus signs, and to understand every nuance, in the happy certainty that other people, such as my mother-in-law, who are very good with figures, find it all utterly bewildering, is extremely satisfying.

Moreover, a good look at a league table uncovers some gems of statistical information. Reading, sixth in Division One, have played more home games yet scored fewer goals at home than Grimsby, fourth from bottom. Charlton have won more away games than Arsenal. Wigan, top of Division Three, have the meanest defence in all four divisions, but have conceded more than twice as many goals at home as they have away. Call me an anorak, and some people do, but I love all that.

The most fascinating reading of all, for my money (none of which I staked on Portsmouth at the beginning of the season, despite the advice of my friend Mark Johnson, whose £100 bet is looking cleverer by the week), is the line of figures alongside the name of Leeds United.

At home, Leeds have won two, drawn none, lost six. Elland Road, which used to be a fortress, is now a bouncy castle. The European Cup semi-finalists of only two seasons ago are now out of the Uefa Cup before Christmas, beaten in their last six matches at Elland Road, and employers of the most reviled player in Britain in the revolting person of Lee Bowyer. "If Venables has dragged us into the gutter, Bowyer has dragged us into the sewer," is how one disaffected Leeds fan put it in a phone call to Radio 5 Live's 606 phone-in on Saturday evening.

Like other Leeds fans, he is beginning to contemplate the unthinkable: derby matches next season against Bradford City again, without Bradford City requiring promotion. Not even the greatest detractor of Terry Venables predicted a relegation battle for Leeds at the start of the season. And I know that because I know him. He is a sports writer of some renown, and has been banging on for years that Venables' reputation as a coach far exceeds his achievements.

Actually, I have a problem with this, for I am an admirer of this particular sports writer, but an admirer too of Gary Lineker, who insists that Venables was far and away the best coach he ever worked under, and that includes Howard Kendall during Everton's (last) halcyon age, and Bobby Robson.

The familiar cliché on these occasions is that a good coach or manager doesn't become a bad one overnight. And there are deeply ingrained problems at Elland Road which clearly existed long before the appointment of El Tel – or El T'el, now that he's an honorary Yorkshireman. ("'E's nowt of t'bloody sort," I hear a few Tykes mutter.) On the other hand, the ability of Venables that even his critics acknowledge – to engender a fierce loyalty among his players – seems to have failed him this time, with the midfielder Olivier Dacourt, for one, accusing him of being "remote".

Venables, in turn, has reportedly said that he will personally drive Dacourt to whichever Italian club wishes to buy him when the transfer window reopens next month. If Tel's still in the job next month (and should Leeds lose at Bolton tonight it is a reasonable bet that he will not even be in it next week) then he will need some lemon air freshener; there'll be a bad atmosphere in that car.

The other major surprise in the Premiership table, of course, has been Everton, although those who know David Moyes may well say that the club's turnaround in fortunes is no more than they expected. Whatever, it is Liverpool versus Everton next Sunday, and not since the 1980s has Merseyside hummed with so much anticipation in derby week.

My prediction? Liverpool 1 (Owen) Everton 3 (Rooney hat-trick). But as I say, it's an unpredictable season. Young Wayne might get only two.

b.viner@independent.co.uk