Arsenal lead the hopeless pursuit

Fears of a thoroughly predictable season have never been greater, from top to bottom

A new season, a new England manager, a new stadium for one of the country's biggest clubs; and the same predictable old Premiership? Six days from the start of the 2006-07 campaign, the feeling is not so much of a new era as of a continuing dynasty, the one set up on 1 July 2003, when Ken Bates sold Chelsea Football Club to Roman Abramovich.

For a couple of years thereafter it was fun to watch the Arsenal-Manchester United duopoly facing up to a new challenge, as Claudio Ranieri forged a team out of players he had never heard of ("Who is Glen Johnson?"). Then Jose Mourinho earned Chelsea a first title in exactly 50 years, after Arsenal and United had taken 11 of the previous 12. The novelty soon wore off, while the fear grew that instead of a three-cornered fight there now existed a monopoly in which the richest owner buys the best players for the cleverest coach.

Two genuine stars of world football, and two only, have been added to the Premiership. Under the sort of draft system that dreamers imagine might somehow be copied from America, Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko would presumably have signed for Sheffield United and Watford. Instead, they joined the club who last season dropped two points in 19 home games and who had effectively won the title by Christmas.

Little surprise then, that the odds against Chelsea completing a hat-trick (4-9) are the shortest ever offered before the start of a Premiership season. Interest in watching them seems certain to be confined to whether Mourinho can make a breakthrough on two fronts: developing a more entertaining style, probably around the use of two strikers; and winning the Champions' League.

Who might push them hardest on the domestic front? The bookmakers name Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool in that order, and the only argument from this quarter would be to make a case for Arsène Wenger's side and possibly Rafa Benitez's finishing above Sir Alex Ferguson's. Arsenal's performance in dismantling Dinamo Zagreb on their own intimidating patch with seven players missing was hugely impressive. The balance sheet of personnel may not look favourable: lose Robert Pires, Dennis Bergkamp, Sol Campbell and probably Ashley Cole and gain Tomas Rosicky. Yet the shock of losing Patrick Vieira was probably greater, resulting in a year of transition that came within three points of missing out on the Champions' League, to Tottenham of all people.

What Wenger is banking on, with apparent justification, is his young bloods learning from their extra year's experience, and on Tuesday's evidence players such as Cesc Fabregas, Alexander Hleb, Kolo Touré, Emmanuel Eboué, Johann Djourou and Robin van Persie have done so. Rosicky has already found a berth in Pires's place, floating in from the left, and others, including Fredrik Ljungberg and of course Thierry Henry, are yet to return. The Emirates Stadium will not only offer vastly increased revenue but also a larger pitch that should suit the team's build- up.

The night after Arsenal's 3-0 romp in Croatia, the product of controlled passing football and precise finishing even without Henry, Liverpool were distinctly less assured in scrambling a 2-1 victory over the limited Israelis Maccabi Haifa. With only Craig Bellamy to replace Fernando Morientes and Djibril Cissé, Benitez wants another new striker to profit from the service that Jermaine Pennant should provide. Sami Hyypia's worrying lack of pace suggests a change will be necessary in defence too, though replacements have been recruited there.

Although United finished a point ahead of Liverpool last time and were joint top scorers with Chelsea, 21 of those goals came from Ruud van Nistelrooy, and it is difficult to see Louis Saha matching that. The absence of Michael Carrick early on, and possibly Wayne Rooney and Paul Scholes, will be a handicap too.

Once again only Tottenham, with shrewd signings in Dimitar Berbatov and Didier Zokora, look like threatening the big four. Indeed, predictability spreads discouragingly through the League, illustrated by the fact that over the past two seasons, more than half the clubs stayed in essentially the same position.

All that happened last time was that Everton, Middlesbrough, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Birmingham plummeted half a dozen places while Spurs, Newcastle and Blackburn moved in the opposite direction and two of the promoted clubs, West Ham and Wigan, put up a good enough show to reach the top half.

The chances of Reading, Sheffield United or Watford emu-lating them must be small, since none seem to have been able to attract players of sufficient quality. West Ham did so a year ago; Wigan were underestimated partly because of their image, but also because due recognition was not given to the financial muscle of their owner, Dave Whelan, or the ability of Paul Jewell.

Normally a team running away with the Championship as Reading did would be fancied to prosper. There is an understandable temptation to look at a squad who achieved 106 points and wonder how they can be improved, but even then serious strengthening is necessary. By adding only Seoul Ki-Hyeon and Sam Sodje, Reading, like Sunderland last year, may have failed to aim high enough.

In Neil Warnock, the qualified chiropodist who regularly puts his foot in his mouth, Sheffield United will bring a dash of excitement that appears unmatched by the squad at his command. Watford's Adrian Boothroyd is another who will make equally good touchline pictures and soundbites, and is a bright young man. But he has been limited to around £2 million worth of investment - the Reading and Sunderland level, and about one eighth of what West Ham spent last season.

Wigan were slipping towards the end of the last campaign and are likely to fall into the bottom half, where Fulham, Charlton and Portsmouth should remain. Middlesbrough (14th) Manchester City (15th) and Villa (16th) are all due to move upwards again, though Martin O'Neill's welcome return will need to be backed up with some astute recruitment, as will Gareth Southgate's entry into management.

Despite the disenchantment engendered by England's World Cup, attendances should hold up, if only because of the increases in capacity at Arsenal and Manchester United. A huge new television contract has already been agreed for next season, and suggestions that the gravy train has hit the buffers appear misplaced. What is desperately needed over the next eight months is a tale or two of the unexpected.

THE EXPERTS' VIEW

Steve Tongue

TOP

1 Chelsea

2 Arsenal

3 Liverpool

4 Manchester United

BOTTOM

18 Reading

19 Sheffield United

20 Watford

SURPRISE PACKAGE Sadly, none

TOP SCORER Thierry Henry

Nick Townsend

TOP

1 Chelsea

2 Liverpool

3 Manchester United

4 Tottenham Hotspur

BOTTOM

18 Fulham

19 Wigan Athletic

20 Watford

SURPRISE PACKAGE Aston Villa

TOP SCORER Andriy Shevchenko

Ronald Atkin

TOP

1 Manchester United

2 Chelsea

3 Arsenal

4 Liverpool

BOTTOM

18 Charlton Athletic

19 Sheffield United

20 Reading

SURPRISE PACKAGE Wigan Athletic

TOP SCORER Andriy Shevchenko

Jason Burt

TOP

1 Liverpool

2 Chelsea

3 Manchester United

4 Arsenal

BOTTOM

18 Middlesbrough

19 Sheffield United

20 Charlton Athletic

SURPRISE PACKAGE West Ham United

TOP SCORER Thierry Henry

Simon Turnbull

TOP

1 Arsenal

2 Manchester United

3 Chelsea

4 Liverpool

BOTTOM

18 Sheffield United

19 Reading

20 Watford

SURPRISE PACKAGE Wigan Athletic

TOP SCORER Thierry Henry