Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City or West Ham? The race for the Champions League

Chief Football Correspondent MARK OGDEN breaks down the four teams in the race for the final two Champions League places

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ARSENAL

WHY THEY NEED IT:

Arsenal’s business model depends heavily on Champions League revenue, so the financial hit of missing out would felt as painfully as the blow to the club’s reputation on the pitch. But with Chelsea unable to offer Champions League football to prospective new signings and Tottenham needing to fund the construction of their new stadium, securing a top four finish would make Arsenal the strongest player of the London clubs in the transfer market and enable Arsene Wenger to strengthen his squad at a time when their neighbours are unable to compete with the stability and certainty at the Emirates.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY MISS OUT:

Failure to qualify for the Champions League could signal the end of the road for Arsene Wenger, just as he approaches his anniversary as manager, so the upheaval would be substantial. Wenger’s blueprint is already being questioned by supporters, so the clamour for change would escalate if a top four finish eludes Arsenal. And with Paris Saint-Germain eyeing a summer move for Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal would be faced with the dual challenge of keeping their best players, but also struggling to persuade top targets to sign up for a season in the Europa League.

MANCHESTER CITY

WHY THEY NEED IT:

When City announced the capture of Pep Guardiola as their new manager in February, the intention was to have the Spaniard in charge for an assault on the Champions League next season rather than a Europa League campaign. The club are committed to a squad rebuild under Guardiola with the sole intention of becoming one of Europe’s major players, so the project would suffer significant damage if City finish outside the top four. But if they qualify, expect major summer spending and at least four top signings to arrive, tasked with the challenge of taking City to a new level, both domestically and in Europe.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY MISS OUT:

The most sought-after coach in the world would at least be able to target the one major trophy he has yet to win, but Guardiola is not the type to have a second-string competition on his bucket list. Key targets may go elsewhere and the players that City are looking to offload may be forced to hang around at the Etihad due to difficulties of persuading the top stars to sign up for the Europa League. And would the likes of Sergio Aguero and David Silva be prepared to remain at a club that cannot offer the opportunity to end their wait for Champions League glory?

MANCHESTER UNITED

WHY THEY NEED IT:

The self-styled ‘biggest club in the world’ have already had one season outside the Champions League and it left a £50m hole in the club’s finances. This year’s group stage exit was another blow and United’s lustre is now beginning to fade, so they desperately need to remain at Europe’s top table to help accelerate the club’s return to prominence. Another failure to qualify would not signal an immediate downturn in commercial revenue, but clauses in major contracts, such as the £75m-a-year deal with Adidas, would kick in if United suffered back-to-back failures to finish in the top four.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY MISS OUT:

Louis van Gaal’s future depends on a top four finish, so failure to qualify for the Champions League would signal a third summer of managerial upheaval in four years at Old Trafford. With the departures of Sir Alex Ferguson and David Moyes handled badly in terms of succession planning, United would be under pressure to get it right quickly in order to be competitive in the transfer market. But missing on the top four would signal further drift at Old Trafford and leave United vulnerable to losing the likes of David de Gea and possibly Anthony Martial.

Louis van Gaal is under huge pressure at Old Trafford (Getty)

WEST HAM UNITED

WHY THEY NEED IT:

West Ham’s move into the Olympic Stadium this summer was always designed to transform the club’s competitiveness, but year one with a Champions League campaign ahead of them would offer the opportunity to accelerate their climb up the football ladder. West Ham would become a hugely attractive proposition, with top players offered the combination of Champions League football and the London lifestyle, which remains a significant attraction to foreign players. Moving to the Olympic Stadium is already big moment, but playing in the Champions League would be equally important for West Ham.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY MISS OUT:

Of the four clubs locked in the race for fourth, West Ham are the least likely to suffer should they finish outside the top four. There is no business plan linked to the Champions League or expectation to be there, so existing plans will not be affected by missing out. But although key players such as Dimitri Payet have been secured to new contracts, the lure of playing in the Champions League could leave West Ham vulnerable should clubs in that competition target Slaven Bilic’s star names.