Roy Hodgson dogged by uncertainty ahead of a World Cup England cannot afford to miss

Failure to reach Brazil would be far worse than 2008 flop and the route to Rio is littered with hazards

By the time, the Football Association reaches its 150th anniversary next May it will be on the brink of appointing yet another new chairman, an individual who will once again have to define the role of his organisation within the volatile, high-stakes world of modern English football. Of all the challenges that will face the new man, the one he does not need is doubts over the England team reaching the 2014 World Cup finals.

If Wednesday's World Cup qualifier against Poland felt like it was a significant game in the life of Roy Hodgson's England then the 1-1 draw in Warsaw means that the fixture away to Montenegro in March is even bigger. By then, the side from the tiny former Yugoslav republic – population 625,000, just less than Sheffield – will potentially be top of Group H, given that they have two qualifiers over a period in which England have just one.

Montenegro and England will both play San Marino before they face one other in Podgorica on 26 March. Montenegro play the Sammarinese next month and then Moldova, away, on 22 March. Providing both teams take maximum points from their games, England will find themselves two points behind Montenegro when they come to play them. It is hardly a disastrous state of affairs but it is enough to make the Montenegro match a turning point in the group.

England are still in a strong position but there is not much room for error in their six games remaining in this campaign, of which the away and home games against Montenegro and the matches against Ukraine (away) and Poland (home) are the most difficult. Under Fabio Capello, England drew three games on their way to qualifying top of their group for Euro 2012, and then they played eight games, rather than the 10 they will have in World Cup qualification.

The value of England's point in Poland will emerge when Ukraine go there in March and Montenegro play there in September. The Poles, also unbeaten, remain a force in the group. The problem is that, as Hodgson embarks on five months with no qualifying game, two tough friendlies against Sweden and Brazil and a lot of watching Premier League games in the stands, there are no cast-iron certainties.

"I still think you'll find that come November we'll be very much in the mix," Hodgson said. "If sometimes you've got to fight your way for something, rather than just sail through, that can help. If you look at the Euros, Russia and Holland sailed through but neither of them got out of their groups, though they'd qualified unbeaten.

"Italy went there with loads and loads and loads of problems, we were led to believe, not the least politically – and they ended up in the final. I'm anxious to make us play as well as we can play. But I'm equally anxious to make certain we've got those fighting qualities that England has always been famous for and we don't lose them."

He is certainly correct that Italy went to Euro 2012 with problems over the match-fixing scandal that forced left-back Domenico Criscito to withdraw from the squad in the build-up. But in qualification Italy were unbeaten, winning eight games and drawing two. In fact, of the four semi-finalists at Euro 2012, only Portugal had lost a game in qualification – they lost twice and came second in their group.

While the great story of Denmark in 1992 – the team that won the European Championship having originally failed to qualify – lives on, a good qualification campaign is generally an indicator, although not a guarantee, of success at the tournament itself.

At the 2010 World Cup, finalists Spain and the Netherlands both had 100 per cent records in qualifying. On the way to Euro 2008, Spain also won their qualifying group, although they lost twice, including to Northern Ireland. The other finalists that year, Germany, lost just once in qualifying. In qualifying for the 2006 World Cup, winners Italy lost once in qualifying and runners-up, France, were unbeaten.

It will be some comfort to Hodgson that England are still unbeaten in qualification and the last time they failed to reach a tournament – Euro 2008 –they had already lost by this stage. But as with the development of the team itself, it is uncertain. What no one wants to consider at the FA is the prospect of not qualifying for Brazil, a World Cup finals that has even greater significance because of the country hosting it.

"The players know that," Hodgson said. "It would be teaching my grandmother to suck eggs if I was to stand up in front of them and tell them that. There's a lot of football still to be played and the bottom line is that this is not an easy group. Poland and Ukraine were at the Euros, we know about Montenegro from the previous campaign. We've always been aware of that.

"It would've been lovely to have got off to a flier and be sitting here with 12 points. But you don't get what you want by asking for it. You get what you want by playing for it. Ukraine played very well at Wembley and deserved their point. Poland played well and deserved their point. We've got to be disappointed because we couldn't produce a good enough performance in those games to get six points."

It is a curious feature of the FA that it would vote to curtail the reign of the same chairman who appointed Hodgson on the very same day that the England manager has a crucial World Cup qualifier. Even given the previous night's postponement it seemed a strange way to go about business given the pressure already on Hodgson and his players following the rain delay.

David Bernstein's successor as chairman will inherit all the old problems the FA has keeping itself relevant in a game dominated by the Premier League's powerful clubs.

There is the challenge of managing the FA Cup's future, the governance of the institution itself, ensuring St George's Park returns a profit, among many others, but the one the organisation is judged on above all is the performance of the England team.

If failing to qualify for Euro 2008 was painful, then being absent from a World Cup finals in Brazil the equivalent of missing Christmas, New Year and all the family's birthdays.

It is still a distant prospect, although this week England have had their warning.

Plain sailing is best: Why Roy's wrong

Roy Hodgson's claim that making hard work of a qualifying campaign can benefit a side at a tournament do not ring true. Both finalists at the last World Cup, Spain and the Netherlands, had a 100 per cent success rate in their qualifiers, while 2006 finalists France were unbeaten in qualification and winners Italy lost just once:

World Cup 2010

Five of the eight quarter-finalists won their qualification group.

World Cup 2006

Six of seven quarter-finalists won their qualification group [Germany qualified as hosts].

Alexis Sanchez has completed a £35m move to Arsenal, the club have confirmed
sportGunners complete £35m signing of Barcelona forward
Poor teachers should be fearful of not getting pay rises or losing their job if they fail to perform, Steve Fairclough, headteacher of Abbotsholme School, suggested
voicesChris Sloggett explains why it has become an impossible career path
world cup 2014
Ray Whelan was arrested earlier this week
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Arts and Entertainment
In a minor key: Keira Knightley in the lightweight 'Begin Again'
Arts and Entertainment
Celebrated children’s author Allan Ahlberg, best known for Each Peach Pear Plum
peopleIndian actress known as the 'Grand Old Lady of Bollywood' was 102
Wayne’s estate faces a claim for alleged copyright breaches
newsJohn Wayne's heirs duke it out with university over use of the late film star's nickname
Life and Style
It beggars belief: the homeless and hungry are weary, tortured, ghosts of people – with bodies contorted by imperceptible pain
lifeRough sleepers exist in every city. Hear the stories of those whose luck has run out
Mick Jagger performing at Glastonbury
Life and Style
fashionJ Crew introduces triple zero size to meet the Asia market demand
Santi Cazorla, Mikel Arteta and Mathieu Flamini of Arsenal launch the new Puma Arsenal kits at the Puma Store on Carnaby Street
sportMassive deal worth £150m over the next five years
Arts and Entertainment
Welsh opera singer Katherine Jenkins
musicHolyrood MPs 'staggered' at lack of Scottish artists performing
Life and Style
beautyBelgian fan lands L'Oreal campaign after being spotted at World Cup
Arts and Entertainment
Currently there is nothing to prevent all-male or all-female couples from competing against mixed sex partners at any of the country’s ballroom dancing events
Potential ban on same-sex partners in ballroom dancing competitions amounts to 'illegal discrimination'
Caption competition
Caption competition

Bleacher Report

Daily World Cup Quiz
Independent Dating

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services

Day In a Page

A History of the First World War in 100 Moments: Peace without magnanimity - the summit in a railway siding that ended the fighting

A History of the First World War in 100 Moments

Peace without magnanimity - the summit in a railway siding that ended the fighting
Scottish independence: How the Commonwealth Games could swing the vote

Scottish independence: How the Commonwealth Games could swing the vote

In the final part of our series, Chris Green arrives in Glasgow - a host city struggling to keep the politics out of its celebration of sport
Out in the cold: A writer spends a night on the streets and hears the stories of the homeless

A writer spends a night on the streets

Rough sleepers - the homeless, the destitute and the drunk - exist in every city. Will Nicoll meets those whose luck has run out
Striking new stations, high-speed links and (whisper it) better services - the UK's railways are entering a new golden age

UK's railways are entering a new golden age

New stations are opening across the country and our railways appear to be entering an era not seen in Britain since the early 1950s
Conchita Wurst becomes a 'bride' on the Paris catwalk - and proves there is life after Eurovision

Conchita becomes a 'bride' on Paris catwalk

Alexander Fury salutes the Eurovision Song Contest winner's latest triumph
Pétanque World Championship in Marseilles hit by

Pétanque 'world cup' hit by death threats

This year's most acrimonious sporting event took place in France, not Brazil. How did pétanque get so passionate?
Whelks are healthy, versatile and sustainable - so why did we stop eating them in the UK?

Why did we stop eating whelks?

Whelks were the Victorian equivalent of the donor kebab and our stocks are abundant. So why do we now export them all to the Far East?
10 best women's sunglasses

In the shade: 10 best women's sunglasses

From luxury bespoke eyewear to fun festival sunnies, we round up the shades to be seen in this summer
Germany vs Argentina World Cup 2014: Lionel Messi? Javier Mascherano is key for Argentina...

World Cup final: Messi? Mascherano is key for Argentina...

No 10 is always centre of attention but Barça team-mate is just as crucial to finalists’ hopes
Siobhan-Marie O’Connor: Swimmer knows she needs Glasgow joy on road to Rio

Siobhan-Marie O’Connor: Swimmer needs Glasgow joy on road to Rio

18-year-old says this month’s Commonwealth Games are a key staging post in her career before time slips away
The true Gaza back-story that the Israelis aren’t telling this week

The true Gaza back-story that the Israelis aren’t telling this week

A future Palestine state will have no borders and be an enclave within Israel, surrounded on all sides by Israeli-held territory, says Robert Fisk
A History of the First World War in 100 Moments: The German people demand an end to the fighting

A History of the First World War in 100 Moments

The German people demand an end to the fighting
New play by Oscar Wilde's grandson reveals what the Irish wit said at his trials

New play reveals what Oscar Wilde said at trials

For a century, what Wilde actually said at his trials was a mystery. But the recent discovery of shorthand notes changed that. Now his grandson Merlin Holland has turned them into a play
Can scientists save the world's sea life from

Can scientists save our sea life?

By the end of the century, the only living things left in our oceans could be plankton and jellyfish. Alex Renton meets the scientists who are trying to turn the tide
Richard III, Trafalgar Studios, review: Martin Freeman gives highly intelligent performance

Richard III review

Martin Freeman’s psychotic monarch is big on mockery but wanting in malice