Cycling: Armstrong defies storm clouds to resume the road to greatness

Two days ago, in the Tour of Murcia, a small stage race in a south-eastern Spanish backwater, Lance Armstrong began his now familiar path towards his sport's ultimate prize, standing on the Champs-Elysées in Paris on a Sunday in late July, wearing the maillot jaune that denominates the winner of the Tour de France.

With the 31-year-old Texan having racked up the past four Tours in a row, to describe him as overwhelming favourite for a fifth would be akin to predicting Michael Schumacher as Formula One champion this year.

Should he succeed, the leader of the US Postal team will have drawn equal with his idol Miguel Indurain as the only other rider to take five consecutive Tours. From there on, Armstrong, who overcame testicular cancer before returning to racing, would be looking at an unprecedented six Tours. Not even Eddy Merckx managed that.

The scale of Armstrong's domination can be judged by the fact that the runner-up last year, Joseba Beloki, has already said that the American will win this July. Indeed, when the Basque made his one brief attack of the entire race, on the slopes of Mont Ventoux, Armstrong soared past him, gaining over two minutes by the summit and then publicly thanking his rival for "opening up the race". By Paris, he had extended his winning margin over Beloki to seven minutes.

Not even his trial separation from his wife Kristin appears to have dented his confidence. "Lance is more motivated than ever before," his directeur sportif, Johan Bruyneel, said. "Every year you start from zero, but he's capable of winning not just five Tours, but six."

Armstrong has not let his marital problems affect his winter training schedule. At the beginning of December, he received a call from Britain's best Tour rider, David Millar. The Scot, still on holiday, was horrified to discover that Armstrong was already out on his bike, getting the miles in, as cyclists say, for the coming season. His tried and tested formula of intensive training and limited race appearances has grown increasingly predictable ­ last year he raced for only 21 days before the Tour ­ and recently his interest has focused more on tying down minor details rather than making changes in the main canvas of his season.

For example, in 2002, in the process of winning the last French pre-Tour warm-up race, the Dauphiné Libéré, Armstrong took the opportunity to check on the hotels he would be using after certain Tour stages.

Such attention to detail, right down to the quality of hotel bedroom mattresses, is typical of the Texan's professionalism and indicates just how far ahead of his rivals he is. In accordance with the dictum that the Tour is always won in the mountains, he invariably spends a fortnight in June reconnoitring all the major stages in the Pyrenees and Alps.

As he comes closer to joining the pantheon of Tour greats, Armstrong has also taken steps to avoid the increasing pressure. His team's first training camp of 2003 was held in a secret location, for, as his website put it, "reasons of security and privacy". The Tour of Murcia is in one of Spain's least accessible regions, and the Texan will not be complaining if the lack of plane connections decreases the scale of media interest in his 2003 debut, which began on Wednesday with a comfortable 31st place finish in the peloton. He stayed with the main field again yesterday, spending most of the time assisting his team-mate Victor Hugo Peña.

While keeping an eye on Jan Ullrich, the 1997 Tour winner, who is returning after a nine-month suspension for taking ecstasy, Armstrong's real concern is more with external factors that could destabilise his build-up to July. Possibly the most important is that one of his team of advisors is Michele Ferrari, the Italian doctor on trial for supplying illegal drugs and sporting fraud. There is no suggestion that Armstrong is in any way involved. Nike, one of Armstrong's sponsors, were reputedly behind the decision to separate the athlete Marion Jones from Ben Johnson's former coach, the controversial Charlie Francis, but have not put similar pressure on the American cyclist.

The media will attact attention to the Ferrari connection, and to the question of Armstrong's separation from his wife will almost certainly also be raised during the season. Bruyneel has criticised the media "for assuming the split is permanent". But Kristin Armstrong's claim on her husband's website that her heart was "broken" and that this "is the single most difficult period in my life..." does not sound optimistic.

Added to that is the prospect of war with Iraq. "The war won't prevent me racing this July," he said. "Even if I am advised to pull out for security reasons, I will still go," he has stated. But rather like his friend George W Bush, Armstrong's relationship towards "Old Europe" and the French in particular has never been entirely amicable. A drawn-out investigation into his team by France's anti-doping authorities which led nowhere, as well as insults shouted by French fans, provided fuel to the divide between the Texan and the Tour's host country.

As regards terrorist attacks, Armstrong, admits he is worried about what he calls the "wide-open" nature of cycling. But he has hardened up to what he calls the minority of "drunk-out-of-their-minds fans on the side of the road yelling 'dopé, dopé'."

Probably Armstrong feels he has too much to lose. He knows he is on the brink of cycling history, and that, as Indurain used to say: "The one rider I really have to fear is myself". Winning even one Tour may be one of the toughest tasks in sport, but for Armstrong the challenge looks more straightforward than ever.

* Jan Ullrich's Team Coast have had their licence temporarily withdrawn after several riders did not receive wages for January and February. The ban will take effect from the Paris-Nice event starting on Sunday.

Alasdair Fotheringham writes for Cycling Weekly