Racing: Barathea the Classic value: Zafonic's form is far from solid and Luca Cumani has a strong Guineas alternative. Richard Edmondson reports from Newmarket

JUDGEMENT day for Zafonic in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket this afternoon, when the French colt will either join hallowed ranks or be exposed as an impostor.

Andre Fabre's horse has provoked a rare polarisation in racing during his short career. Some are happy to believe he will become the most influential thoroughbred since Caligula enrolled a four-legged member to his team of consuls; others see him as a school bully of an animal who outmuscled his contemporaries last year and is now about to get his comeuppance.

These attitudes are shaped by two races, last season's Dewhurst Stakes here and the Prix Djebel at Maisons- Laffitte last month. Last October, Zafonic was a devastating figure, transferring his physical dominance in the parade ring to the racecourse when pulling four lengths clear of vaunted British opposition.

This performance is fundamental for those who lionise Zafonic. His other Group One victories, in the Prix Morny at Deauville and Longchamp's Prix de la Salamandre now make less impressive reading in view of the disappointing subsequent efforts of those behind.

Back on home territory this spring, Zafonic appeared a diminished performer as he surrendered his unbeaten record to Kingmambo. Pat Eddery, the horse's jockey, produced excuses aplenty that day after a public relations briefing with the colt's connections, comments which jarred with an initial observation that the horse had simply not been good enough.

Whatever his achievements, Zafonic now represents appalling value. If a horse who managed to finish just a short-head in front of his pacemaker last time is a worthy odds- on favourite, then the British colts ranged against him will have to be among the most tawdry group of animals ever to assemble for a Classic.

As Zafonic has shown intractability on the Chantilly gallops earlier this year and may not prove the most willing accomplice as Eddery tries to settle him today, there must be a rewarding alternative among his 14 opponents.

The shortest priced of the remainder is Wharf, who, like Zafonic, is the property of Khalid Abdullah. His presence here as a sort of backstop suggests the men behind the favourite do not consider Zafonic's case to be watertight.

Wharf, who will attempt to give Walter Swinburn the Guineas double last achieved by Lester Piggott in 1970 via Nijinsky and Humble Duty, is one of six combatants who come here from the Craven Stakes. The chestnut was the best horse at the weights that day, and is said to have improved since. 'I rode him work last weekend and he worked very well on ground he is not really suited by,' Swinburn said yesterday. 'Henry (Cecil, the colt's trainer) seemed to get quite excited, and that excited me.'

Cecil is intrigued by the Craven, more for the manner of its running than the bare result. 'You have to look at how horses run more than whether they win or not,' he said. 'I remember the day Gorytus won the Champagne Stakes, going five lengths clear under sufferance with his ears back and hating every minute of it.

'Everybody said this was the best thing we'd seen since The Tetrarch but I turned round to my wife and said that it would never win another race. And it didn't'

The Newmarket trainer's belief is that, Wharf apart, the most compelling performance in the Craven came from the horse that finished fourth, Luca Cumani's Barathea.

'I thought he ran very well,' he said. 'For him to run Wharf that close means he has come on about six lengths since last year. He's a big horse and if he goes on improving he's a very live horse for the Guineas.'

This theory is not contradicted by Michael Roberts, Barathea's rider. The South African was particularly keen to nurse his colt through the Craven in preparation for the more demanding task ahead. 'At the bushes I thought I was going to win, but I think my horse needed the race,' he said yesterday. 'When I looked round at the others I thought there would be more to come from mine than anything else in the race.'

This Guineas is a guessing game of which horse has the steepest improvement curve. It may be that Zafonic, like Arazi before him, has had his zenith in the autumn of his two-year-old career, when he was a giant among boys. If the Lilliputians are to fight back this afternoon, their most likely leader is BARATHEA (nap 3.40).

(Photograph omitted)