Bookmakers to suffer weight loss

Kayf Aramis set to exploit low handicap today after easy Knavesmire triumph

(GETTY IMAGES)

Horses tend to be easier to read on paper than on grass. True, the appearance today of a royal Derby colt, at one of the world's most beautiful racecourses, would almost seem to achieve the compromise of a race run on canvas. Generally speaking, however, most punters feel happier with ratings, speed figures and pounds-for-lengths than trying to unravel the twists of fortune they particularly learn to expect at an awkward, undulating track such as Goodwood.

The theory is that if a horse rated 70, say, has a true merit of 85, then you can dispense with environmental imponderables. Those complications can be left to the bookmakers, who duly find themselves contemplating two of the most daunting favourites they will have to chalk up all summer.

This afternoon, 35 minutes after the Queen's Free Agent tests the water for Epsom in the Cocked Hat Stakes, Kayf Aramis runs in a handicap under a 6lbs penalty for his ludicrously easy success at York last week. He cruised 13 lengths clear on the bridle there, in the process translating to the Flat the improvement – crowned by success at the Cheltenham Festival – he had made over hurdles during the winter. His official mark in future handicaps has soared 17lbs, so in theory he is 11lbs "well in" with his penalty, but his superiority at York was impossible for the handicapper to quantify.

Then, in the gloaming at Sandown tomorrow, a filly candidly viewed by no less a judge than Sir Michael Stoute as a potential Classic candidate runs in a handicap off a rating of just 78. Stoute had Leocorno entered for the Musidora Stakes, the Investec Oaks trial won by Sariska at York last week, but she was unable to run after suffering a foot problem.

Stoute hates pundits getting carried away by gallops hype, but has left little doubt that Leocorno, who came from last to first to win her sole start at Doncaster last autumn, is an awful lot better than the modest creatures she meets tomorrow. He will find some comfort from the fact that she runs in the very last race at an evening meeting, but the punters will be there with searchlights if necessary.

Leocorno is a half-sister to two Derby runners-up in Golan and Tartan Bearer, and the latter will surely be adding a first Group One success to his CV for Ballymacoll Stud this season. He resurfaced from a long absence to collar Pipedreamer over just 10furlongs at Sandown last month, and is one of only 10 acceptors for the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh on Sunday.

Unfortunately the going is heavy at present and Peter Reynolds, the Ballymacoll manager, indicated that Tartan Bearer may stay at home. "I'm sorry to be negative, but it's pretty wet at the moment, and I wouldn't be sure it would be best for him to be running on very soft ground," he said.

Testing ground would also distort the two Classics run over the weekend. Cuis Ghaire should be hard to beat in the Boylesports 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, having run second in the Newmarket version, but disappointed behind Again when tried in the mud last season. The sponsors duly have Again as 5-2 favourite, from Cuis Ghaire and Super Sleuth on 4-1.

Overdose, the Hungarian phenomenon known as "the Budapest Bullet", will miss Royal Ascot. His foot injury, which ruled him out of a reconnaissance at Haydock on Saturday, is taking longer than expected to heal.

Chris McGrath

Nap: Wizard Looking

(2.35 Lingfield)

NB: Advisor (2.15 Goodwood)