Epsom Derby 2017: Ignore the 1000/1 outsider, Eminent can surge to glory

The race reserved for royalty has a shameless pretender, and here's why The Independent will be backing Eminent for the Derby

Eminent won the Craven Stakes and can take a bigger race on Saturday (Getty)

For most top tier races much of the preamble focuses on the best horses in the field, yet for this year's Epsom Derby column inches have been dominated by undoubtedly its worst horse.

Racing has been near split over the participation of 1,000/1 shot Diore Lia, some applauding the owner's gumption and charitable intentions, others incensed by the cheek and potential hazards it may cause.

To contextualise the difference in quality, the average rating of this year's derby field (without Diore de Lia) is 107, the Racing Post make her’s 52. The race reserved for royalty has a shameless pretender.

The reasons behind the horse's unlikely participation? The owner can tell us. Richard Aylward told the Racing Post: ‘The whole idea behind what I'm doing is to raise money for Great Ormond Street, which is something I care deeply about.

‘The horse was entered for the Derby two years ago and these charities need all the money and support they can get. I'm 48 and have been breeding horses all my life – it’s a dream come true to have a runner in the race.’

Whatever reasons he may have and believe to be innocent, much of the racing public disagrees.

Indeed its original trainer, Jane Chapple-Hyam, refused to train the horse for the race, forcing the owner to switch homes for the filly.

Epsom hosts the Derby on Saturday (Getty)

The tale took a further twist on Wednesday when the sport’s governing body refused to let Gina Mangan, a 25-year-old apprentice with one winner to her name from 2009, take the ride. Fury ensued with threats of withdrawal and accusations of elitism before ultimately a replacement was sourced.

Any fan would be aghast to see the outsider cause interference with another runner and ruin its chances, yet a clean, harmless run and maybe even beating one or two underperformers (still unlikely) can only be considered a victory.

A fantastic charity with plenty of awareness raised and even some cash too, certainly much more of the former than if only the year's training fees had been donated.

Aside from the potential fairytale/horror of Diore Lia's participation, a reason for so much focus on the modest filly is perhaps the absence of any extraordinary colt. Such is the openness of the race, the largest field since 2003 of 19 will go to post with a lively betting market to boot.

Cracksman is the favourite, certainly the form pick but not as imposing a performer as one would expect from a Derby favourite. His only run this season will have provided some valuable experience, with Epsom’s esoteric course not to all horses’ tastes. His owner was undoubtedly livelier regarding his runner in 2015, Golden Horn, who would return victorious after being supplemented for the race at the cost of £75,000.

Supplemented this year (for £85,000) and second behind Cracksman at Epsom was Permian. Since that day, Mark Johnston’s charge has won twice, most recently the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York, a well-regarded trial in which he demonstrated his front running prowess. Both will have undoubtedly improved since meeting back in April, yet Permian remains a much bigger price.

Permian is also considered a good chance (Getty)

Vying for favouritism is Cliffs of Moher, who appears to be Ballydoyle's first pick of their six entries, judging by jockey bookings. Ryan Moore rides the horse as he did when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester, a race that has come to serve as a sighter more than a genuine trial for Aidan O'Brien. As such he appears to be their best choice by default rather than design, although no one can pretend to read the brilliant mind of O'Brien before such races.

Another trial winner is Godolphin’s Best Solution, who prevailed in impressive fashion at Lingfield, a course that offers a similar experience to Epsom in its self-described ‘tight and sweeping’ corner. Saeed Bin Suroor also runs Dante second, Benbatl, and the impressive maiden winner Dubai Thunder. It would be a huge ask for a horse with only one run to his name to win this, but in a wide open year punters have latched onto a contender with unknown potential.

Away from the larger yards is Craven stakes winner, Eminent. After finishing sixth in the 2,000 Guineas, the colt’s trainer, Martyn Meade, has been bullish about the son of Frankel’s ability to stay further than his sire ever did. Having been given a satisfactory run around Epsom recently, confidence is quietly building in Newmarket that Eminent can put in a bold show on ground that should suit perfectly.

Providing a lowly rated horse and any other traffic in running don’t prove problematic, with Eminent likely to be doing his best running near the finish, the son of Frankel can be a first UK classic winner for his sire and scoop plenty of the record £1.625 million pot.

May Mr Aylward enjoy his day in the sun however contentious it may be, as long as quality and competitive racing unfolds unperturbed, as it does so enjoyably so often.