Grand National 2014 betting: Conditions at Aintree edging in favour of Long Run despite money for Teforthree and Monbeg Dude

Rain on Friday could see Long Run start the race as favourite

There was a significant market move for Long Run for the Grand National yesterday as the ground was turning in his favour and the amateur jockey on board on Saturday won a race over the National fences. Warne was an impressive winner of the Fox Hunters Chase owned by Robert Waley-Cohen, the father of the jockey. Long Run could be the favourite by the time of the race.

Warne finished fourth in the Fox Hunters Chase at Aintree last season after getting no luck in running. He led from the start of this year’s race and tried to outrun the strong favourite Mossey Joe. That horse’s jockey seemed confident of overhauling Warne bur Waley-Cohen knew he had something in hand and went further ahead again on the run-in.

Long Run is always ridden by Waley-Cohen and it must be a stipulation of the ownership that the owner’s son gets the ride. Despite being an amateur with business commitments Waley-Cohen takes a professional approach to riding and he never loses a race through lack of fitness.

The jockey and owner combination have a great record over the National fences. They have yet to win the big one but Katarino won two Fox Hunter Chases and another Waley Cohen horse came second in the same race. The amateur jockey actually has more experience of the National fences than most of his professional counterparts.

Warne’s win was the jockey’s fifth over the course and in three from four rides in the National he has made the top five places. Backing all his mounts blind each way over this unique course would be profitable and if Long Run wins the National there would be a boost to the overall winnings from following this strategy.

The jockey was impressed with the jumping ground on Thursday and that also augers well for Long Run’s chances. He will have his favoured ground in the Grand National and the confidence of his trainer. Nick Henderson has never won the National but is expecting a great effort from Long Run having missed Cheltenham in favour of Aintree.

Long Run won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2011 and is looking to become the first horse since L’Escargot to win that race and the National. He has been given a winnable weight by the handicapper who has encouraged the participation of top class animals by allocating less weight than they would carry in conventional chases.

The horse that will start favourite for the National will depend on the bets placed for sentiment by the once a year punters or the wagers from the regular racing fans. The former will want to be with Monbeg Dude and Teaforthree but late money for Long Run can see that horse be the shortest priced by race time on Saturday.

To read Ian's latest sports betting news, visit www.ianhudsonsport.co.uk/betting-news

News
peoplePair enliven the Emirates bore-draw
Arts and Entertainment
tvPoldark episode 8, review
News
Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Ed Miliband (R) and Boris Johnson, mayor of London, talk on the Andrew Marr show in London April 26
General electionAndrew Marr forced to intervene as Boris and Miliband clash on TV
Arts and Entertainment
Ramsay Bolton in Game of Thrones
tvSeries 5, Episode 3 review
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Caption competition
Caption competition
  • Get to the point
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Ashdown Group: Senior Accounts Assistant - Accounts Payable - St. Albans

£26000 - £28000 per annum + benefits : Ashdown Group: Senior Accounts Assistan...

Ashdown Group: Treasury Assistant - Accounts Assistant - London, Old Street

£24000 - £26000 per annum + benefits : Ashdown Group: A highly successful, glo...

Recruitment Genius: Installation and Service / Security Engineer

£22000 - £40000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company is part of a Group...

Recruitment Genius: Service Charge Accounts Assistant

£16000 - £18000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: Are you a a young, dynamic pers...

Day In a Page

Not even the 'putrid throat' could stop the Ross Poldark swoon-fest'

Not even the 'putrid throat' could stop the Ross Poldark swoon-fest'

How a costume drama became a Sunday night staple
Miliband promises no stamp duty for first-time buyers as he pushes Tories on housing

Miliband promises no stamp duty for first-time buyers

Labour leader pushes Tories on housing
Aviation history is littered with grand failures - from the the Bristol Brabazon to Concorde - but what went wrong with the SuperJumbo?

Aviation history is littered with grand failures

But what went wrong with the SuperJumbo?
Fear of Putin, Islamists and immigration is giving rise to a new generation of Soviet-style 'iron curtains' right across Europe

Fortress Europe?

Fear of Putin, Islamists and immigration is giving rise to a new generation of 'iron curtains'
Never mind what you're wearing, it's what you're reclining on

Never mind what you're wearing

It's what you're reclining on that matters
General Election 2015: Chuka Umunna on the benefits of immigration, humility – and his leader Ed Miliband

Chuka Umunna: A virus of racism runs through Ukip

The shadow business secretary on the benefits of immigration, humility – and his leader Ed Miliband
Yemen crisis: This exotic war will soon become Europe's problem

Yemen's exotic war will soon affect Europe

Terrorism and boatloads of desperate migrants will be the outcome of the Saudi air campaign, says Patrick Cockburn
Marginal Streets project aims to document voters in the run-up to the General Election

Marginal Streets project documents voters

Independent photographers Joseph Fox and Orlando Gili are uploading two portraits of constituents to their website for each day of the campaign
Game of Thrones: Visit the real-life kingdom of Westeros to see where violent history ends and telly tourism begins

The real-life kingdom of Westeros

Is there something a little uncomfortable about Game of Thrones shooting in Northern Ireland?
How to survive a social-media mauling, by the tough women of Twitter

How to survive a Twitter mauling

Mary Beard, Caroline Criado-Perez, Louise Mensch, Bunny La Roche and Courtney Barrasford reveal how to trounce the trolls
Gallipoli centenary: At dawn, the young remember the young who perished in one of the First World War's bloodiest battles

At dawn, the young remember the young

A century ago, soldiers of the Empire – many no more than boys – spilt on to Gallipoli’s beaches. On this 100th Anzac Day, there are personal, poetic tributes to their sacrifice
Dissent is slowly building against the billions spent on presidential campaigns – even among politicians themselves

Follow the money as never before

Dissent is slowly building against the billions spent on presidential campaigns – even among politicians themselves, reports Rupert Cornwell
Samuel West interview: The actor and director on austerity, unionisation, and not mentioning his famous parents

Samuel West interview

The actor and director on austerity, unionisation, and not mentioning his famous parents
General Election 2015: Imagine if the leading political parties were fashion labels

Imagine if the leading political parties were fashion labels

Fashion editor, Alexander Fury, on what the leaders' appearances tell us about them
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka: Home can be the unsafest place for women

Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka: Home can be the unsafest place for women

The architect of the HeForShe movement and head of UN Women on the world's failure to combat domestic violence