Grand National betting 2014: What impact does the handicap have when picking a winner?
A look at the impact of the weights carried by the field
Wednesday 02 April 2014
"They don't give weight to donkeys".
Another oft used racing term, which is factually correct but patently useless and merely reminds us that, in a handicap, the best horses carry more weight than those considered to be their inferiors.
You would think that carrying extra weight over close to four and a half miles would be a real negative but history shows us a massive variety of weight carrying performances. Though since the end of the war it has to be said only six winners have carried more than eleven stone five and two of those were the legendary Red Rum!
If you equate it to carrying a rucksack, when running 100 metres it would be fine but the marathon would be a whole new ball game!
Using the last 25-years as a realistic benchmark it does look as though the fences are a little easier resulting in more high class entries and with the exception of Bobbyjo in 1999, nothing has won from "out of the handicap" - these are horses who are allocated a weight of less than ten stone BUT have to carry ten stone as that is the minimum racing weight, i.e. they have more weight than their official rating warrants.
To use that to our advantage we need to assume that top weight Tidal Bay will take his place at the head of affairs, in which case we can rule out a list of runners in Night In Milan, Saint Are, Tranquil Sea, Alfie Sherrin, Court By Surprise, There's No Panic, Wyck Hill, Baile Anrai, Gullible Gordon, Quinz, Any Currency, Storm Survivor, and Victrix Gale.
That leaves just 28 runners left to work on tomorrow when we will look at both the going and the jockeys and trainers to see if we can narrow it down even further - this is getting very interesting.
Liam Neeson's Downton dreams
Latest in Sport
Think before you ink: Manchester United fan gets Sir Alex Ferguson tattoo - and will regret it for the rest of his life
Mario Balotelli: Staff at arson-hit Manchester Dogs' Home convinced Liverpool striker is behind five-figure donation
Borussia Dortmund vs Arsenal: Mesut Ozil given the worst rating possible by German newspaper Bild after poor performance
Colombian women's cycling team kit that makes wearer appear naked is branded 'unacceptable' by UCI president
Paul Scholes column: Arsenal's Mesut Ozil is too good for Arsene Wenger to waste on the left wing
- 2 Scottish independence live: Scotland gives a clear 'No' in historic referendum - as it happened
- 3 iOS 8 is full of shiny new features - but it's terrible news for app developers
- 4 Friends 20th anniversary: Six things we wouldn't have without influential comedy series
- 5 Scottish independence: Tory revolt against 'devo max' grows as Rail Minister Claire Perry joins
Daniele Watts: Django Unchained actress detained by Los Angeles police after being mistaken for a prostitute
Scottish independence referendum: A nation divided against itself
Scottish independence: David Cameron is becoming the 'George Bush of Britain'
Russia freezes Ukraine into submission: Kiev admits country doesn't have enough fuel for winter
Scottish independence: The Queen breaks silence on referendum debate – as think tank warns of £14bn black hole if Scotland votes Yes
Portuguese academic says British are 'filthy, violent and drunk'
£32000 - £42000 Per Annum: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd: Our client is curr...
£27000 - £31000 Per Annum Excellent Benefits: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd:...
£300 - £350 Per Day: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd: Our client is currently ...
£21000 - £35000 per annum: Randstad Education Cambridge: Primary teachers requ...