Rugby Union: Henry's test of forward thinking

Wales should be under no illusions about the size of the task they face against Ireland on Saturday, or what they must do in order to win. The Irish front five are up there with the best in the world and Wales must put all they have into trying to get parity with them. Otherwise, I fear the worst.

The defence around the rucks and mauls has to be aggressive because only big hits are going to stop the momentum the Irish can create with their fierce pick-up-and-drive tactics. It'll be the nearest thing to dying for their country, but if the Welsh can manage it they've got a good chance.

Ireland depend so much on forward domination that if it is strongly challenged it can lead to their downfall. Once they find it difficult to impose their forward strength they try to expand their game and that's where they usually fall down. Their halves and centres are sound defensively but when they are called upon to introduce some attacking variety they start to struggle.

You have only to examine the scoring record of the Irish backs to see what a weakness this is. David Humphreys has a deadly weapon in his up- and-unders but although he made Emile Ntamack uncomfortable in Dublin last weekend against France, I fancy he overdid it.

Even now, it is impossible not to feel sorry for the way the Irish lost and they'll be fired up to make amends against the Welsh. But, it could be that the frustration of such a long wait for victory will work against them if Wales can prevent them getting their own way up front. And, if their tempers get the better of them, Neil Jenkins will be expected to punish them, assuming he is fit to play.

Humphreys will not be encouraged by the memories of the failed kicks which let the French off the hook and I am amazed that the Irish selectors haven't given him the benefit of the back-up of Niall Woods.

There are other reasons why calling up Woods would have helped - his back-three link with his fellow London Irish players Conor O'Shea and Justin Bishop works very well - but having someone around who could take the kicking duties away from you if your confidence goes takes a load off your shoulders.

When Humphreys next takes a kick for his country, hoping to wipe out the memory of that last-minute match-loser in Dublin, he do so in a place that neither he nor any of the team have played at. I'm not sure how much home advantage Wales get from playing at Wembley but at least they've played there a few times. With every Irishman in London trying to get a ticket, it won't be as intimidating as Cardiff would have been, but it will still be unfamiliar.

Among all the shocks to hit the Welsh coach, Graham Henry, last weekend was his first experience of a Five Nations match. He was amazed at the presence of so many Welshmen in Edinburgh, not only at the ground but hanging around their hotel. You don't get fervour like that in the Tri- Nations because of the distances involved.

They won't get so much close attention in London and maybe he and the team won't be weighed down with so many expectations now that the nation has been brought back down to earth. If David Young and Craig Quinnell recover fitness, it will help them to achieve the main objective I outlined at the start. There also needs to be an improvement in the set-pieces. We weren't able to turn the Scottish pack enough to give Scott Quinnell, Robert Howley and Shane Howarth an open channel to attack and the line- outs were a big flop. I would bring Steve Moore in to the squad to give another jumping option to Chris Wyatt.

Wales must also to sort out their use of slow and quick ball. They must use Scott Gibbs to exploit the slow ball by crashing over the gain line to give the forwards a target. Although Jenkins played well against the Scots, he still needs to vary it a bit. Playing flat is all very well, but there are times when you need a bit of depth. Allan Bateman, particularly, is better when he comes on to the ball at pace from depth.

As Henry keeps pointing out - to win Test matches we have to be performing at or close to our best at all times. This is the game when that thought should be uppermost.