Rugby Union: Wales can foil a green mean machine

Jonathan Davies says the middle ground must be won if the Irish are to be denied

AFTER what the Irish did to the Five Nations form-book last weekend, it'll take a brave man to do any forecasting about the remaining matches - especially Wales's visit to Dublin on Saturday. On the face of it, Ireland's amazing transformation that so nearly beat France should be more than enough to see off the Welsh.

Some of the effects of their battering from England were eased by the win over Scotland but Wales hardly looked convincing. However, winning was the priority and even a narrow victory took a lot of pressure off them. In contrast, Ireland would have been hugely satisfied by the way they played in Paris - but they didn't win.

Moral victories are all very well but they don't live as long in the memory as real victories. The Irish nation will be expecting them to put it right on Saturday and that means pressure.

These little considerations about which team is under more pressure matter a lot in the Five Nations. But having said that, Ireland have never yet played a home match in which their commitment has been less than awesome. It's like playing 30 of them; they're everywhere and they'll engulf you before you know what day it is. If they can do it to the French in Paris, they can do it to the Welsh in Lansdowne Road.

But any Welshman who has played there before will be painfully aware of the need to keep them at bay in the early stages. If they can manage that, it will develop into a tactical battle that the Welsh could win.

It all depends on the Welsh forwards gaining parity against an Irish pack who have the edge in strength and mobility. The superiority Wales have in the backs could then be the deciding factor.

But Wales need to get their tactics right. If they play a lateral game they will get absolutely hammered. The French, who are a lot better at throwing the ball wide, tried to play it that way and were totally disrupted by Ireland's excellent spread defence.

Wales's only hope is to attack down the middle - make ball- retention their main aim and put in drive after drive to suck in the defenders and exploit the weaknesses in the Irish backs.

The ball-carriers must cross the advantage line as often as possible and the speedy back three of Kevin Morgan, Wayne Proctor and Gareth Thomas have to be used as carriers or decoys to create space for the others, especially Allan Bateman and Scott Gibbs.

You can be sure that the Irish won't fling the ball wide like the Scots did. They'll also come down the middle, using Garryowens to set up good positions and dominate the Welsh up front. They thrive on catching the opposition behind the advantage line so the Welsh back row will have to have a disciplined game plan that reduces the amount of loose ball the Irish can pounce on.

There is a glimmer of comfort for Wales when you compare the two performances of last weekend. For all their brilliance in disrupting the French, Ireland didn't create much. They scored an interception try and the one chance they actually created was from a Conor McGuinness break which ended when Kevin Maggs dropped a pass.

Wales, on the other hand, didn't play well defensively but they did make good opportunities and that could be a significant difference. One thing Wales must not do is to close the game down if they go in front. They did that against Scotland but against Ireland they'll have to be flat out for 80 minutes.

I'm not surprised that Wales have stuck with the same team that started at Wembley but I am surprised that they have dropped Arwel Thomas and Scott Quinnell from the replacements' bench. As much as I admire Byron Hayward and Stuart Davies I don't know what you gain by putting them on the bench. They are both very steadying influences and deserve to be considered for the team but replacements need to have the ability to make an impact when they come on. Arwel and Scott may not be playing well but they each have the ability to have an effect on the course of the game and that is all important in a replacement.