Alan Watkins: England are favourites, but at these odds I will not be backing them

The bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Six Nations' Championship: England 5-2 on, France 5-2, Ireland 8-1, Wales 40-1, Scotland 50-1 and Italy 500-1. This follows more or less the pattern of recent seasons. Sometimes Scotland are just ahead of Wales, sometimes not; and Italy are always bottom of the poll and certain of losing their deposit if there were such a thing in rugby.

Come to think of it, a financial penalty might deter certain clubs and countries from entertaining competitions vainly. But then the game has quite enough financial risks already, without adding any new ones.

The England price is not at all generous. You would have to be a highly confident – or maybe a very foolish – gambler to back a horse at 5-2 on in a six-horse race. But England are never good value. The bookies are presumably anticipating a rush of patriotic money in the next 11 days before France visit Twickenham.

I have not read or heard anyone dissent from the view that this is the match that will decide the championship. But why, in that case, play it on the very first Saturday of the competition? It has been evident for some seasons now that the two leading European countries are England and France. One of them is in all probability set to bring home the trophy.

It would be unfair to England invariably to make the match the last one to be played. The usually warmer weather would give an advantage to France, irrespective of whether the game took place at Twickenham or in Paris. But this does not mean that the fixture should be one of the very first.

As it is, England have the advantage. It does not justify the niggardly odds of 5-2 on. They will probably win. But anyone who saw Philippe Saint-André's try under the posts all those seasons ago will not readily believe the stories that the French freeze on the field when they come to south-west London.

We are often told that Clive Woodward, the England manager, has great strength in depth at his disposal. Most other countries envy it. And yet it is unevenly spread. He has great strength on the wings, at scrum-half and at lock. But Lawrence Dallaglio's injury on Sunday means that he will probably play Richard Hill at No 8, with Lewis Moody on one flank and Neil Back on the other.

A few weeks ago Woodward announced his training squad. It contained only three props, with Jason Leonard the sole specialist at loose head, because Trevor Woodman was injured. It was explained that Graham Rowntree was not considered because he was injured, too. But on the Saturday after the mid-week announcement, and before the squad had even gathered, there was Rowntree, apparently as fit as a flea, plying his trade for Leicester with his customary energy and skill.

If he, Woodward or anyone else can supply me with a coherent explanation I shall reward him or her with a personally signed, hand-written postcard. At all events, what this small episode shows is that, partly owing to injury, England are not so strong at prop as Woodward would presumably like.

At least Steven Hansen, the Wales coach, has managed to assemble four of them, all in one piece. I am delighted to see Martyn Madden in the squad. But I still think the loose-head side is better suited to someone of his ability in broken play.

That Hansen cannot find a reserve at hooker for Mefin Davies is a sad commentary on the state of Welsh rugby. Robin McBryde has had a toe operation that will keep him completely out of the Six Nations. Barry Williams was injured early on in the Neath v Munster match. Both are getting on a bit. It is surprising that Hansen had not been able to fix on a fourth choice after Davies.

The idea that Duncan Jones, a good prop, should somehow be transformed into a hooker is wholly misplaced. It rarely works. The two positions are quite different, all the more so since the poor old hooker has been compelled to throw into the line-out and is fiercely blamed if his side do not secure the ball every single time.

Ireland, by contrast, can feel pleased with themselves. A side that can afford to leave out Jeremy Staunton at full-back and Geordan Murphy either at full-back or on the wing – and where even Rob Henderson cannot be entirely sure of his place – are clearly a highly confident outfit.

But at this stage of the season Ireland nearly always do look good. Then they go on to lose to Scotland, to Wales or to both of them. Still, at 8-1 they are a sporting bet. For myself, in these hard times I shall be keeping my wallet firmly in my inside pocket.