Six Nations 2020: Favourites England looking closely over their shoulders in unknown Grand Slam battle

Eddie Jones’ World Cup finalists are favourites to clinch a Grand Slam in a year where there are few certainties that may just play into the hands of their closest rivals

The Grand Slam: who wants it? That’s the leading question as the Six Nations prepares to get underway this weekend just three months since England suffered Rugby World Cup heartbreak last November. International rugby, we’ve barely had enough time to miss you.

Recent history suggests one team will bolt ahead of the rest in a post-World Cup year to claim a Grand Slam and set the tone as a new international cycle gets underway, with all roads heading to France 2023. Four years ago it was England who shot out the blocks with a clean sweep that culminated in nearly going all the way to World Cup glory, while the two previous times before that it was Wales who sent out statements of intent that preceded strong World Cup displays. Even as far back as 2004, France were able to win the Slam and put the building blocks in place for three championship wins in four years.

Thanks to their World Cup display – and in particular the dominant semi-final victory over New Zealand – England will kick-off in Paris on Sunday as the tournament favourites. The bookmakers’ actually have them as the strong frontrunners, so it happens, a stark contrast to the scenario Eddie Jones found himself in when he first took the job amid the humiliating 2015 World Cup fallout.

That is perhaps why Jones has talked up his own desire to see England develop into the “greatest team rugby has ever seen”, which is quite the target when you’re not even the best side currently in the world. A declaration the outspoken Australian has declined to make though is the one Warren Gatland did last season, which saw the former Wales head coach insist his side would win the Grand Slam if they could win in Paris. They did, and seven weeks later it was Alun Wyn Jones’s hands on the Six Nations trophy after five wins on the spin.

One reason Jones may have been reluctant to have make such a claim is the perceived improvement within the French. Despite Les Bleus being ranked as outsiders for the title with the bookmakers’ having both Ireland and Wales in front of Fabien Galthie’s side, there have been strong murmurings of a potential Grand Slam decider on the opening weekend. Such talk is bold and rather foolish, especially when this France team is only showing the smallest of buds on a tree they hope will blossom way down the line when they host the next World Cup.

The starting XV holds just 221 international caps, an average of less than 15 that is significantly less than England’s expected line-up, and there is just one player in centre Gael Fickou who has cleared a half-century of appearances. To suggest that this team, albeit one full of excitement and potential, should be expected to produce a clean sweep is a prime example of setting rather unrealistic targets in what will be their very first campaign under Galthie and new defence coach Shaun Edwards.

By the time France and England get their campaigns underway, they will have received a good look at their other rivals. Reigning champions Wales raise the curtain in Cardiff in what will be the first Test of the Wayne Pivac era, a new dawn that the Kiwi has stressed will retain plenty of what compatriot Gatland built throughout his 12 golden years in charge.

Oddly enough, Wales do not seem to be that fancied for the title, which is mostly down to the changing of the guard in the coach’s box and also largely to do with the absence of their world class centre Jonathan Davies for the entire tournament. But while the Scarlets back will be watching on, Wales will boast two very welcome returns: one big in stature in the shape of a fit-again Taulupe Faletau and one big in talent as Rhys Webb makes his comeback from international exile in France. Any team in the world would benefit from having such talents back in the ranks, and the squad that Pivac has named for the championship contains more than enough experience for a tilt at retaining the title – with a sprinkling of the unknown in the form of 18-year-old Gloucester wing Louis Rees-Zammit and George North’s move to the No 13 shirt.

Ireland meanwhile may just awaken from their 2019 slumber with a bang. Joe Schmidt’s reign in charge went 12 months too long in the end as his side peaked in late 2018, 12 months before it really mattered, and rumblings of divisions, disputes and a breakdown of trust will have to be ironed out by the new man in charge: Andy Farrell. The former England defence coach was a part of Schmidt’s set-up, but as he steps up to the top job for the first time in his career following an 11-year apprenticeship, the rugby league great will be eager to stamp his mark over what remains a very talented squad.

Rob Kearney has been jettisoned to allow the supremely gifted Jordan Larmour to make the 15 shirt his own while Johnny Sexton takes over the captaincy, a move that merely gives the veteran fly-half a title for a role he has long commanded within the squad. The Irish will have a point to prove given how their World Cup hopes were shattered, so surprisingly by Japan then so convincingly by the All Blacks, but another year in the doldrums will simply be unacceptable for a squad that contains such talents as James Ryan, Garry Ringrose and – should he finally get the nod – John Cooney, who will surely usurp Conor Murray at scrum-half at some stage unless the Munster half-back rediscovers his very best.

At least Farrell can look across the Irish Sea and see a firm reminder that things can always get worse. The Six Nations was still two weeks away when the news came through that Finn Russell, arguably Scotland's most crucial player, had been banished from the squad for an alleged booze-fuelled breach of team protocol. His failure to attend training last week saw the fly-half sent back to Racing 92 and stood down for the opening weekend of the championship, but with suggestions that the problems between Russell and head coach Gregor Townsend run much deeper than this lone incident, his return to the squad is by no means a guarantee.

Eddie Jones's England start the Six Nations as favourites (EPA)

It is exactly what new captain Stuart Hogg did not need ahead of his first game as skipper, but the one silver lining is that the Exeter Chief appears to be talking a good game. Hogg is a wise head on incredibly talented and frenetic shoulders, but the challenge for the full-back will be to not try and do it all himself. When the going has got tough in the past, Hogg has more often than not been the man who has attempted to swing the game in the Scots’ favour. With long-range goal-kicking also in his armoury, the danger is that he tries to do it all himself when the pressure is on, instead of trust those around him to fulfil their individual roles.

Two of his most important lieutenants will be the flankers Hamish Watson and Jamie Ritchie. Watson has built a reputation as one of the most natural opensides in the northern hemisphere alongside Justin Tipuric, while Ritchie looks to be his perfect understudy. With Townsend electing to deploy them together in the back-row against Ireland, Scotland could find themselves on the cusp of something akin to the Tom Curry-Sam Underhill combination that did so much damage at the World Cup.

Perhaps the one certainty of this championship will be the new chapter in Italy. There will be an unfamiliar feeling in Cardiff on Saturday morning when Sergio Parisse is nowhere to be seen as the Azzurri run out. The talismanic No 8 was due to call time on his international career following the World Cup, only for his final swansong against the All Blacks to fall by the wayside as one of the typhoon-enforced cancellations. It means that Parisse will make at least one last outing against England on the final weekend.

The bookmakers believe England Wales will be the teams to beat (Reuters)

However, four years without a Six Nations win leaves little to be desired, and with Franco Smith only installed temporarily following Conor O’Shea’s departure, you would think there is far too much uncertainty surrounding Italy for a successful tournament. O’Shea was heralded for putting the building blocks in place at club and union level, but at some stage those will need to produce results at the top of the game.

Italy’s struggles should be the only guarantee though. Post-World Cup years bring with them great uncertainty in the Six Nations, and rarely is it the team everyone expects to emerge at the top who actually finishes there. This time the pressure is well and truly on England to rekindle what they achieved last autumn, and that may just play into the hands of chasing pack to perfection.