When an England manager and his coaching team find themselves in "put up or shut up" territory, as Martin Johnson and the red-rose back-roomers will when the Six Nations Championship begins to unfold next month, there is an overwhelming temptation to spurn the new in favour of the familiar – to dig in the heels and invest a career's worth of trust in those devils already known. It is not a sign of cowardice, exactly; more one of common or garden indecision in the face of escalating odds. Even the All Blacks fell victim to this syndrome ahead of the 1999 World Cup, and if it was good enough for them, it is plenty good enough for the people on the Twickenham payroll.
Is Johnson's indecision final? Unless he makes a bold statement soon, it will start looking that way. Another World Cup, the 2011 version, is looming ever closer, and as things stand the manager has yet to embark on a serious piece of team-building geared towards that defining event. Since succeeding Brian Ashton in the sudden, and thus far unjustified, knife-in-the-back bloodletting 21 months ago, what precisely has he achieved? Where are the former captain's flashes of selectorial inspiration?
Dylan Hartley and Riki Flutey? These acknowledged successes cannot be credited to the current regime, for Ashton would have blooded Hartley had the Northampton hooker not been slapped with a long-term suspension for gouging, and fast-tracked Flutey had the then unqualified New Zealander been available to him. Paul Hodgson? Capped by the previous regime. David Wilson? On the radar for years and picked in the autumn only because the dinosaurs, Phil Vickery and Julian White, were crocked. Courtney Lawes and Ben Foden? These are genuine additions, but neither man has started a Test. A year and two-thirds into the job, Johnson can claim only two picks of his own: Delon Armitage – inspired – and Ugo Monye (below) – effective enough on the wing, laughably ineffective at full-back.
Tomorrow, he names a new 32-man squad for the Six Nations, which begins with a thoroughly uncomfortable meeting with Wales at Twickenham. If the old-lag likes of George Chuter, Ben Kay and Mike Tindall – and, to a lesser extent, Harry Ellis – feature in this party, it will be proof positive that Johnson's natural conservatism has turned into something terminal. Only the presence of fresh, 2011-spec talent will persuade an increasingly sceptical Twickenham audience that England might travel to New Zealand 19 months from now with a squad selected from somewhere other than Madame Tussauds.
He should start with Dan Cole, the new Leicester tight-head prop. Cole was educated at the manager's old school, raised rugby-wise in the School of Hard Knocks and is currently being schooled to within an inch of his life by the likes of White and Martin Castrogiovanni, two of the more formidable scrummagers of the last decade. "I'd love to be involved," the youngster admitted after laying waste to the Wasps front row at Welford Road on Saturday, "but I'm not thinking too much about it. You can't miss what you don't have." Spoken like a true Tigers troglodyte.
Johnson might also extend the hand of forgiveness to some of his more errant charges by promoting them from the second-string Saxons squad. Danny Cipriani falls most obviously into this category – he may be an uppity little blighter but crikey, what a talent – while Foden, the Northampton full-back who dared to criticise the all-pervasive "play it as we tell you, not as you see it" environment at international level, is precisely the kind of broken-field runner capable of maximising opportunities in a turnover-dominated game. Elevated to the senior party last autumn, he should now stay there.
The really bold move would be to undertake a little fishing expedition outside the 64-strong "elite player squad" pieced together last July. There has been talk of an immediate promotion for the brilliant young Sale lock James Gaskell and the rather less brilliant Bath centre Shontayne Hape, but there is no obvious point in Johnson making either move. Gaskell has more than a touch of the sensational about him, but so did his clubmate Chris Jones before England messed him around and frittered away his talent. At 19, a taste of Saxons rugby would be best for the teenager. For his part, Hape does not possess the kicking game for the inside centre role and does not appear quick enough for the outside position.
There are, however, mutterings about a surprise choice in midfield. Might Dominic Waldouck of Wasps, who can perform either centre role, receive a call-up that would reflect his fine form this season, or might Jon Clarke of Northampton find himself on the inside track after starting the campaign as a long-odds outsider? Brad Barritt of Saracens is also a strong contender, armed with the hard edge that Johnson considers the mark of a serious international candidate.
Chris Ashton, another Northampton back with a fast-growing following, has a decent chance of snaffling one of the wing berths after weeks of ultra-predatory try-scoring, perhaps at the expense of Matt Banahan, whose clubmate at Bath, the loose-head prop David Flatman, should find himself journeying in the opposite direction, despite the England selectors' concerns about his contribution away from the set piece. This argument counted for something when Andrew Sheridan was fit and firing and might still have made sense when the uncapped Newcastle prop Jon Golding was in the running, but Sheridan's long-term injury problems and Golding's busted rib have left the loose-head position prey to the Old Mother Hubbard syndrome. The most potent scrummager available must be included, and Flatman can scrummage with the best of them.
There is one last name to throw into the mix: Ben Youngs, the 20-year-old Leicester scrum-half. Together with the injured Joe Simpson of Wasps, the button-bright Welford Roader has what it takes – now, immediately, already. It would hardly be a Johnsonesque move to pick him for this tournament, but then, Youngs is a fellow Tiger.
Outside bets: Three backs who could lift England
n Jon Clarke (Northampton)
One of the men currently making things happen for Ashton, injuries have played havoc with the centre's career. Despite this, good judges rate him as a serious contender – none more so than Jim Mallinder, his director of rugby at Franklin's Gardens.
n Brad Barritt (Saracens)
The Watford club were overjoyed at securing the Durban-born centre's services in 2008 and now we know why. Good enough to have played for the Emerging Springboks, the UK passport-holder has already spent time in the England Saxons squad.
n Chris Ashton (Northampton)
The 22-year-old recruit from rugby league – he was born in, and played for, Wigan – is the Premiership's leading scorer and is currently haring along at the rate of a try a game in all competitions. Must be close to a call-up.
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