Tricolore precision explodes myth of Red Rose infallibility

When Six Nations' Championship began, the sports editor of this newspaper asked me, along with the other rugby writers, for a prediction of the final table. Mine was: 1 France, 2 England, 3 Ireland, 4 Scotland, 5 Wales, 6 Italy. As Lord Beaverbrook used to say, if you don't blow your own trumpet, nobody else is going to blow it for you. But I was not sufficiently confident to invest, as the bookmakers so prettily put it, any money in France, despite the highly attractive odds of 100-30 which they were offering.

The reason for my caution was that I was not sure France could hold England in Paris. As we know now, they not only held but walked all over them. And though I had not been prepared to make a firm prediction, I was not so surprised by this outcome as some of my colleagues seemed to be.

What led to this rush of confidence to the head on their part was the win over Ireland at Twickenham, and a consequential, computer-generated claim that England were now the best rugby side in the world. As the Duke of Wellington is supposed to have said: if you believe that, you will believe anything.

Even in a professional age, I am reluctant to criticise players in any harsh way. Though they may be paid for their exertions, they are mostly young men of – if I may put it this way – increasing simplicity of mind, compared to their predecessors, who are doing their best in difficult circumstances.

Kyran Bracken is not at all simple, though that is not why I feel free to criticise his performance on that occasion. He quite simply failed to protect his outside-half, Jonny Wilkinson. This is also, or used to be, one of the duties of the back row generally and the open-side flanker in particular. Here again, England were negligent.

The other doubt in my mind was whether I had been fair to Wales in placing them below Scotland. It would not be quite right to say that the doubt was resolved on Saturday in Cardiff. It was a disappointing match which could have gone either way.

Wales still possess some good players. For example: Mark Taylor, Iestyn Harris and Craig Morgan are individually more talented footballers than their respective equivalents in the great sides of the 1970s, Steve Fenwick, Ray Gravell and J J Williams. But they do not produce anything like the same results.

Partly it is the fault of the current crop of Welsh forwards, particularly their inability to function in the line-out. Graham Henry, Steve Hansen's predecessor as Wales coach, spotted this deficiency early on. He partly resolved it by restricting touch-finding, calling shortened line-outs and taking quick throw-ins. But these ploys, palliative though they are, have now, it seems, been abandoned.

The main reason for the decline of Welsh rugby is, however, the arrival of professionalism – even though the signs of decline were there well before it came. Professionalism depends on a ready supply of fine old English banknotes, a commodity of which my native land has always been regrettably short.

A Lions selection is, I know, something of a diversion at this stage, when thoughts are primarily on the World Cup, still, it is what an old news editor of mine used to call a talking-point.

I am going mainly on this season's form but taking a risk with Phil Vickery and Lawrence Dallaglio, who have hardly any form to speak of. Bryan Redpath, by contrast, has been the most consistent scrum-half in the Six Nations. Rob Howley was not considered owing to his sad exit from international rugby; while Bracken pays the price for his failure to protect Wilkinson in Paris.

At reserve loose-head I prefer my judgement to that of the Welsh selectors, so give the place on the bench to Martin Madden on the strength of his performances for Llanelli, notably in the Heineken European Cup.

The XV contains nine Englishmen, three Irishmen, two Scotsmen and one Welshman. If this were a European team, four Englishmen (Martin Johnson, Jason Robinson, Will Greenwood and either Dallaglio or Richard Hill) and two Irishmen (Brian O'Driscoll and Keith Wood) would have a chance of selection; which gives us some idea of how good the French have turned out to be.

My Lions team would be: J Robinson (England); D Hickie (Ireland), B O'Driscoll (Ireland), W Greenwood (England), B Cohen (England); J Wilkinson (England), B Redpath (Scotland); T Smith (Scotland), K Wood (Ireland), P Vickery (England), M Johnson (England), B Kay (England), L Dallaglio (England), S Quinnell (Wales), R Hill (England). Replacements: I Harris (Wales), M Dawson (England), M Madden (Llanelli), G Bulloch (Scotland), J White (England), S Murray (Scotland), N Back (England).