Welcome to 2003 - it could be an absolute classic

The easy prediction is that 2003 is going to be a great year for rugby; the hard part is forecasting who's going to win what, because I do not remember a more competitive scene world-wide. But if you tie me down and beat me with rolled-up copies of the proposals to reform Welsh rugby, I will confess to the following beliefs: England will win the Six Nations' Championship, Toulouse will win the Heineken Cup and Australia will win the World Cup.

I can also give you very good reasons why none of the above will happen – that's how tight it is.

Without doubt, England will start as favourites for the Six Nations, particularly as they play the toughest match, against France, at Twickenham. The fact that is the first game of the tournament does bring extra pressures. England will be full of confidence after their successful autumn series, but meeting France might cause them even more problems than the southern- hemisphere sides.

Students of their recent Grand Slam failures will have also noted that England play their last match in Dublin. France also have to go to Lansdowne Road, so the Irish are very well placed to toss a spanner in the works.

Wales begin the series away to Italy. While they would be silly to take that for granted, it does give them a good opportunity to start with a win for the first time in six years.

But it doesn't look too comfortable from then on. They play only two matches at home, against England and Ireland, and it is a tough programme. It may be too much to hope that the Welsh will have sorted out their domestic problems by then, but I do see some reason for optimism. Steve Hansen has done a good job as coach, and if they can get quick ball and release their backs they can cause trouble to anyone.

Their performance against New Zealand was very encouraging despite being overwhelmed in the final minutes. They had been suffering from a lack of stamina but that was due more to mental rather than physical lapses, and it would have taught the valuable lesson not to chase the game from within their own 22.

Their ability to last 80 minutes against the All Blacks was due to being in camp for a month. Not having played much rugby at that intensity since will probably put them at a disadvantage again, but I do believe they have the nucleus of a good side, well-balanced in defence.

Scotland are behind Ireland and Wales when it comes to cutting edge, and the Six Nations will be all about breaking down defences.

Before the season, I tipped Gloucester to win the Heineken Cup and they still have a very good chance. But, whereas three sides, Leinster, Leicester and Toulouse, have already booked their quarter-final places, Gloucester still face the big crunch in Munster on 18 January. Northampton also face a tough clash with Biarritz, and the priority now is not only qualification but gaining a vital home draw.

All eight sides in the quarters will have a realistic chance of taking the trophy, but being at home is such a boost. From what I've seen, Toulouse and Leinster have been the most impressive, and if I had to pick one it would be the French team.

There is a long way to go before the World Cup begins but if you study the draw the make-up of the quarter-finals ought to be something like this: New Zealand v South Africa, Australia v Scotland, France v Ireland, England v Wales. On current form, that would give us New Zealand v Australia and France v England in the semi-finals. I am not sure if it has been engineered for a southern v northern hemisphere final, but it looks from this distance as if that will be the outcome.

Playing on your home soil is such a massive advantage that I am convinced Australia will be the team to beat in the final.

Depending to some degree on how they fare in the Six Nations, England should take a lot of cockiness with them and, on neutral grounds, are well capable of beating the main teams in their sector – South Africa, Wales and France.

Although New Zealand look like piecing together a tremendous team, I fancy Australia will beat them at home and then have the edge over England in the final. But the rugby should be so good even being proved wrong will be a pleasure.