Who got it right?

The peculiar progress of the Czech Republic to the final of Euro 96 has brought pleasure for most onlookers, but for one particular group it has been a niggling, perverse disappointment. Of the hundreds of pundits who were asked to predict who they thought would reach the final of Euro 96 just one mentioned the brave men from the borders of the Black Sea.

Rob King, the football correspondent of the Press Association news agency, was shrewd enough to back the outsiders each way at 66-1 before the tournament began. And it is not his first unlikely success. Before the final game of the last Premiership season, he backed Manchester United to beat Middlesbrough 3-0 and David May to score the first goal. Both came about and he reaped the dividend at odds of 275-1.

His selection process is scientific, but only up to a point. The Czechs were with Germany, Italy and Russia in a draw so difficult that the German coach, Berti Vogts, referred to it as the "group of death". There seemed to be as much chance of the Czech Republic progressing as there was of Nick Leeson being invited to become the next governor of the Bank of England. King believed that in such a dangerous group the Czechs' price "represented the only real value in the competition". "I felt that if they got out of Group C, anything could happen at the knock-out stage," he added. His reasoning is not infallible, however, as he also admitted that he fancied the Turks to have a good run. They did not win a point.

More orthodox money is still riding on Germany, the pre-tournament favourites whose advance on the final has been relentless. The majority of pundits plumped either for them or for Italy or France before the competition began and it may well be that their approach will be proved right this evening.

The most popular dark horses were Croatia and Portugal, both teams who did well but were exposed when they reached the knock-out stages.

Objectivity certainly seems to be the key to incisive punditry. Richard Branson and Tony Blair were both blurred by patriotism along with Mike Atherton, Kevin Keegan, Chris Waddle and Jack Charlton. They all gave the host nation their whole-hearted support to carry off the cup, a faith that was repaid by effort and approach if not by achievement.

But they were undoubtedly more on the money that Channel 4's betting expert, John McCririck, who should perhaps concentrate his attentions on Wincanton rather than Wembley. He asserted: "England don't have the skill or discipline, we're absolute no-hopers."

The former British heavyweight boxing champion and West Ham fan, Henry Cooper, would have been pleased to have got that close to the truth. He pondered long and hard before he pronounced that he thought Norway would reach the last four at the very least. They did not even qualify.

For the record, Rob King thinks tonight's match will end up at 1-1 after 90 minutes and the Czechs will win in extra time. The odds? 33-1.