Why Friday is a crucial test for Joe Biden and ‘Bidenomics’

All signs show the economy is doing well. Can the president convince voters of that?

Growing up, my dad used to tell me a phrase my grandfather used to utter occasionally: don’t confuse me with the facts, I’ve already made up my mind. It essentially means that the objective truth oftentimes did not matter to the old man, an ornery old Mexican-American conservative from Texas who died before I was born, because the narrative in his head was already set. So far, it seems like President Joe Biden faces the same problem my dad had when he tried to convince my grandfather of something.

Joe Biden has chosen to make “Bidenomics” a core tenet of his presidency. He continued his attempt to sell the message on Thursday in South Carolina, the state that all but made him the Democratic nominee for president three years when he won the state’s primary thanks to James Clyburn’s endorsement.

For the most part, Bidenomics, as the president describes it, seems like fairly standard Democratic policies: touting the Inflation Reduction Act’s investments in renewable energy and promoting policies he would like to pass the next time Democrats have a trifecta, such as affordable childcare; making it easier for workers to form and join a union; and enforcing anti-trust laws.

Mr Biden’s second-term agenda is decidedly more ambitious than that of his Democratic predecessor Barack Obama’s, showing his confidence that if he wins, Democrats will have a majority in the House – albeit a Senate majority will be much more difficult. In addition, Mr Biden doesn’t face the chronic unemployment that Mr Obama faced ahead of his 2012 campaign as the United States recovered from the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recesssion.

But Mr Biden’s words and owning of his economic record has not convinced many voters. A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 34 per cent of voters approved of how Mr Biden handled the economy, a number that is lower than his overall approval rating of 41 per cent, itself a dismal number for a politician facing re-election.

This comes despite the fact that inflation has tumbled since it reached its zenith and hit four-decade highs last year, which bolstered Republicans to win the House of Representatives last year by a wafer-thin margin (though the lack of a red wave shows the salience of Dobbs v Jackson and the issue of abortion to voters).

Plenty of Republicans immediately pointed to Mr Biden’s American Rescue Plan, arguing that the additional stimulus checks and expanded unemployment insurance caused consumer demand to surge while his energy policies caused gas prices to spike. Throughout the country, some put stickers of Mr Biden saying “I did that” on gas pumps.

That means that every positive piece of economic news is not only a boon for the Biden administration and the White House, but also that he will need to drive home that his policies caused the economic recovery. On Thursday, ADP announced in its monthly employment report that the United States added 497,000 jobs.

That is an impressive number and in line with the consistent addition of jobs that Mr Biden has seen during his term while at the same time, inflation seems to be cooling. But the ADP number is not treated like holy writ the same way that the Bureau of Labour Statistics report that will come out on Friday which shows the nonfarm payrolls.

A good unemployment report will give Mr Biden just the ammunition he needs to say that the economy is getting better. Similarly, later this month, the BLS will release its Consumer Price Index report that will show if inflation truly is on the downswing.

Mr Biden, perhaps learning his lesson from when Mr Obama’s administration did not push back on misinformation about his policies, has campaigned in both solidly blue areas like Chicago but also solidly red areas like South Carolina. Mr Biden also noted how the US has had 60 manufacturing announcements, with one of the biggest being in the district of Rep Marjorie Taylor Green (R-GA), who has pushed for his impeachment, joking “I’ll be there for the groundbreaking.”

But Mr Biden may find that even selling these accomplishments will not move voters much, especially after him being in the public eye for more than five decades. He may find that he’s filled in a nation full of my grandfather.