The Tories have recovered their nerve and could yet make this a close-run election

Unlike most UK election campaigns, which have had surprisingly little effect on the final result, this year's will matter

Most general elections are febrile affairs; 2001 was a rare exception. But this time, the Tories have already achieved one important psychological success. They have recovered their nerve.

Even a month ago, a lot of Tories were grumbling and nervy. They had little confidence in their party's electoral planning. There was a widespread feeling that Tory Central Office was too hesitant in hitting back at Labour attacks. There were rumours of rows between the party's co-Chairman, Liam Fox and Maurice Saatchi. There was a lot of talk about the next Tory leadership election.

Now, that has all changed. The credit is due to Michael Howard and his staff officers. They refused to be deflected and stuck to their strategy. Lynton Crosby, the Tories' Australian campaign chief, kept on making the same point. "You're telling me that today's polls are bad. So what. We don't have to win the election today. We don't even have to win the election on the day before the polls open. We have to win when the people turn out to vote and not until then. So stop panicking.''

There was another line, which was endlessly repeated to those such as me, who are temperamentally disposed towards negative campaigning (I like to hear the bones crunch in the lion's jaws). All the poll evidence leads to the same conclusion, one would be told. Much of the electorate is fed up with Tony Blair but needs to be convinced that there is an alternative. If Mr Blair could get away with it, he would be delighted to fight the election on the basis of "however little you think of me, the others would all be worse''. The Tories can only counter that with a positive message, while allowing Labour to create its own negatives, with the help of the press.

Thus far, this has worked. On immigration, crime, school discipline and hospital hygiene, the Tories have been setting the agenda while Labour is reduced to shouting "me too''. Though it would be absurd to claim that this has transformed the political battlefield, the Tories have had a good fortnight and Labour a bad one. There is worse news for Labour. A number of structural weaknesses have appeared in its campaign.

The first of these is the Blair/Brown split. A few days ago, when the Blair campaign was still confident, its briefers were dismissive of the Chancellor. Mr Blair was going to win the election with the help of his new best friend Alan Milburn, the greatest miracle worker since Carole Caplin. Mr Milburn would then be rewarded with the Treasury. As for boring, sulky old Gordon, he could keep himself busy in Scotland.

Sulky Gordon was unamused by all this. He promptly cleared off to campaign in Labour marginals in Africa and China. While there, he was delighted to receive regular reports from home about the problems which Messrs Blair and Milburn were encountering. It must always be remembered that Gordon Brown is an intellectual snob, who has difficulty in taking Tony Blair's brain seriously. It is hard to exaggerate Mr Brown's contempt for Mr Milburn's mental powers.

Buoyed up by their enemies' difficulties, the Brown camp is now saying that the Chancellor, never a man to bear a grudge (for more than a couple of decades) would be happy to forgive, forget and return to the front line, but only if Mr Blair asks him nicely and gives him a written assurance that after the election, he will not be reshuffled against his will.

Gordon Brown and Tony Blair are both now ready to believe the worst of one another and have plenty of friends to stoke the furnaces of suspicion. Over the next few weeks, that could easily cause a crisis or two.

Labour's second problem is negative campaigning. It has no alternative. Labour opinion research is producing the same evidence as the Tories' does. The voters no longer believe Tony Blair. His promises are greeted with cynicism and yawns. So he must rely on smears and fear.

Some years, the Blairites have given a lot of thought to apathy; how to encourage it and how to exploit it. Forget the hopes and the idealism of 1997; forget all that guff about the New Labour Project. These days, they have a different project. In an age of widespread voter disillusion, how do mobilise your political base?

They have already started. Long before polling day, every Muslim voter in Britain will be aware that the Tory leader is Jewish. Labour is also working on the Daily Mirror. It is impossible to underestimate the Labour high command's opinion of the intelligence of Daily Mirror readers. Labour regards them as dim-witted serfs, who will believe any rubbish that they are just about able to read.

So Labour is urging the Mirror's editorial team to renounce whatever scruples they may still possess, to recall the moral triumphs of the Robert Maxwell era, and to spend the next nine weeks force-feeding their readers with hate and lies.

In some ways, all this is impressive, and it is certainly ruthless. But if the rest of the electorate, who are not Labour core voters, start to become aware of these tactics, they might yet recoil in revulsion.

Labour's third problem, implicit in the first two, is Tony Blair. In 1997 and 2001, it was easy to define Mr Blair's relationship to his party's electoral strategy. He was the strategy. This time, nothing will change. Even though he may have become the Cheshire cat grin of the New Labour Project, he will still fight a presidential campaign.

That involves regular encounters with the public, some of which have already gone badly. The Blairite briefers have been trying to persuade the press that this does not matter and was indeed foreseen. Mr Blair's willingness to endure criticism from ordinary people will persuade voters that he is really one of them and counteract any impression that he is puffed up with airs and graces.

I am not so sure. Over the next few weeks, whether on a walkabout or a phone-in, it is inevitable that someone will make a brilliant quip at Tony Blair's expense. Everyone will laugh, and it will not be charitable laughter. It could be the moment which seals the voters' distaste.

So could the length of the campaign. This will be the longest drawn-out election in modern British history, which is bound to have one of two effects on voter behaviour. Labour hopes that it will help to remind its more retarded voters - see Daily Mirror above - that there is an election on and that they ought to vote. But it could also be that, by nine weeks on Thursday, everyone will be so fed up that turnout will fall to record depths. In that case, the result will depend on who stays at home.

Much is still unclear about this election. At the moment, I would only predict that the Tories will get something between 200 and 300 seats. Given the size of his majority, it will be hard to defeat Tony Blair. But it is not inconceivable that there could be a hung parliament.

One thing is clear. Unlike most British election campaigns, which have had surprisingly little effect on the final result, this year's will matter. It has started badly for Mr Blair.