John Reid: How to win back power: a blueprint for the Tory Party

This week the crisis in the Tory Party hit a new low. Michael Heseltine, grandest of the grandees, called on Tory MPs to sack Iain Duncan Smith and pick a new leader in Parliament. With a new man at the top in Westminster, the Tories would presumably be free again to dominate British politics. The problem with the Heseltine plan is its utter superficiality. The Tories' troubles go much, much deeper than quality of leadership.

Bear in mind some of the key facts. In 1997, they got their poorest share of the vote since the Great Reform Act of 1832 and the fewest number of MPs since they split over tariff reform in 1906. Some of the more thoughtful Tory strategists like MP Andrew Tyrie think 2001, not 1997, was the worst defeat in their history because some of the main advantages held by New Labour in 1997 such as "time for a change" were no longer present.

In Scotland, Wales and in our cities they barely exist. Among voters under 40, the Tories are already nudging third party status.

So, could they be on their way out as many commentators now believe? No party has a divine right to exist. Parties can die over decades, like the Tory Party in Scotland. Remember, in 1955 they had half the vote in Scotland. Or they can die of old age.

Because so many of their MPs have small majorities, Andrew Tyrie believes a 1 per cent swing against them at the next election could see the Tories lose a quarter of their remaining MPs. You can see why to some Tories this scenario is of more than academic interest. Theresa May, Tim Collins, David Davis and Oliver Letwin all sit on slender majorities. Nearly 50 Tory MPs have majorities below 5,000.

The Tories, of course, can take comfort from their history. It shows they are remarkably resilient. They suffer huge defeats but they survive, adapt and win again.

In 1830, they collapsed to 180 MPs but by 1841 were back in power again. The 1906 Liberal landslide reduced the Tories to 157 MPs but they dominated the inter-war years. In 1945, they lost 190 MPs but were back in government six years later to rule for 13 years.

Time and again they were willing and able to re-invent right-wingery to suit new times. But this ruthless gift for re-invention disappeared when Mrs Thatcher seized the political imagination of the Tory Party. They have lost the ability to adapt and change. They lost that ability at exactly the same time as we were undergoing a long, painful process of renewal.

I believe the Tories could learn five lessons from my own party's modernisation.

It was based on leadership. The policy reviews of the late eighties – the struggle against Militant, the new fiscal rectitude of John Smith and Gordon Brown, the support for law and order inspired by a younger Tony Blair, the change in our defence posture in which I played a small part – all of these showed courage and decisiveness on the part of the leadership.

There is no sign of such leadership under Iain Duncan Smith. Really to demonstrate leadership he would have to take on the party over Europe. Europe is their Clause 4. How likely is that?

Our renewal was founded on analysis of our most long-held policies to see whether they matched people's aspirations and concerns. We considered afresh the shape and structure of the party itself. But there is little sign of any Tory analysis or evidence of fundamental new thinking.

Our renewal was based on a strategy. By strategy, I mean a long-term programme of ordered change, understood by the party leadership, systematically fought for and won, and then implemented in such a way that the entire party is genuinely transformed.

The Tories have tactics aplenty but tactics will not move them to a position where they have something serious to say about the biggest questions facing the country. On the economy, Europe and public services they have nothing to say at all.

Our renewal took time. Four years in Neil Kinnock had tackled Militant, seen off the Alliance and was transforming policy. Even then we were to lose two more general elections and spend another 10 years on renewal. I don't think the Tories haven even begun the long, hard slog of renewal.

The fifth factor in our renewal was the effectiveness of our political opponents, the Tory Party. It's on this factor – the strength or weakness of the Tories opponents – that I have the really bad news for the Tories. They still haven't understood what's happened because they consistently under- estimate New Labour.

They think we "stole" two elections from them through soundbites and spin doctors and that all they need is a better leader and/or a new director of communications. But they have got it wrong.

The point of New Labour is not presentation. It is not even about occupying the centre ground of British politics. We are about shifting the centre ground. What 10 years or 20 years ago – under the Tories – would have been heresy is today normal. Investment and modernisation of our public services is now put before tax cuts. We have moved the centre ground back to the left. Until the Tories wake up to the fact that the landscape of British politics has been transformed, they will remain out of power.

The author is chairman of the Labour Party.