<a href="http://j-rentoul.livejournal.com/3792.html">John Rentoul: Making sense of the polls</a>

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The Independent Online

The Ipsos-MORI poll in today's Observer changes the story again, replacing a three-point Conservative lead from 12 days ago with an 11-point lead. The previous poll looks like an outlier; this is nearer the top of the bell curve.