Michael Brown: Underneath, Mr Portillo has always been a left-of-centre, one-nation Tory

'There is no ideological baggage he is not prepared to dump if the going gets rough ­ even the pound'

"He's unbelievable, isn't he", said a press colleague admiringly as we watched Michael Portillo launch his lifetime ambition to lead the Tory party. That, to me summed up Mr Portillo. Believing in him has never been difficult for me or others ­ but believing him has always been more tricky.

When he said, upon his selection for Kensington and Chelsea, that "you cannot put a cigarette paper between William and me" I did not believe him. When he said, less than six months ago, "I have no ambition to be leader", I did not believe him. When he said just before the election in the Essex farmyard with William Hague "we are all behind William", I did not believe him. And I never believed all that guff about him being an arch-Thatcherite. All the evidence is that the real Michael Portillo is not as complicated as he or we like to make out.

The truth is that he has probably always been a left-of-centre, one- nation Tory in the Chris Patten tradition. In his early days in the Conservative Research Department he showed no signs of extreme Thatcherism. He simply became overawed with briefing Margaret Thatcher for her press conferences during the 1979 election campaign and decided that, as her star was in the ascendant, he knew where his bread was buttered as he embarked on his own career. And there is nothing particularly wrong with that. It is the stuff of politics.

Successful political life in the Conservative Party, throughout the 1980s, required Mr Portillo to embrace the full Thatcher agenda to secure continuous career progression. He was ambitious, like the rest of them ­ even prepared to support Clause 28, which he must have known was wrong ­ simply to achieve the wider goal of "onward and upward".

His brave attempt to keep Thatcher alive in 1990 probably had as much to do with fear of losing his patron ­ as a junior minister he was knocking on the Cabinet door ­ as much as his professed support of her policies.

So when we demand that the real Portillo reveal himself from behind that make-up, which I swear he was wearing outside Portcullis House this week, it is the 1970s Patten-trained model that has always been lurking beneath the surface. His schoolboy political hero was Labour's Harold Wilson, who "mesmerised" him.

This is Wilson Mark Two, who has the desire to win at any price.

There is no ideological baggage that he is not prepared to dump if the going gets rough ­ maybe even the pound. Just as Wilson dumped on Bevan and was never trusted again by the left, so Portillo can dump Thatcherism and will never be trusted again by the right. But in an ideological free age perhaps this is the only way for the Tories to regain office. Travelling light on policy is probably essential for the Tories during the next four years of grinding, demoralising opposition. And a leader walking the high wire act, which Mr Portillo does so well, does not need to be burdened with too many hostages to fortune.

That Mr Portillo is clearly the front-runner is not in doubt. Only his over energetic "backbiters", of whom Ann Widdecombe spoke so disparagingly, can stop him winning the parliamentary ballot. But it is essential for others to give Mr Portillo a run for his money and ensure that the wider party membership feels that he has not been foisted upon them as a fait accompli. I hope that Ken Clarke will stand in order that Mr Portillo will be aware of the strength of feeling in favour of the single currency on the back benches. Iain Duncan Smith has already indicated his intention to run, which will give an indication of the numbers of "original" Thatcherites. And it would also be in the interests of democracy and choice if David Davis, the hardest-working backbencher of the lot and eminent chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, could be persuaded to put down a marker. In an ideal world, I would love the "dream team" to be Davis and Portillo. The two are uneasy bedfellows, but Mr Portillo, if he is still mesmerised by Harold Wilson's ability at party management, would make a greater success of his leadership if he showed an ability to embrace the likes of Mr Davis.

The lurking nightmare that Mr Portillo might be up against Miss Widdecombe in the final run-off ballot of the 300,000 party members seems to have receded. Miss Widdecombe appears to have recognised that she will not get enough votes in the parliamentary ballot. But she would have been a nightmare threat to Mr Portillo from the party workers. We can expect that this muddled attempt at OMOV (one man, one vote) will cause rows among activists that they are denied names for which they would wish to cast a vote. The new party rules, constructed by William Hague to bolster his own position, will show weaknesses during the weeks ahead and the issue must be revisited once this contest is over.

It will be bizarre, to say the least, if the ultimate winner of the wider membership does not command a majority of the parliamentary party. Perhaps, in future, it would be better if the initial ballot of all interested candidates were to include all paid-up members who would choose the final two candidates. At this point the parliamentary party should then have the final say. This would ensure that the eventual winner is guaranteed to have the confidence of the majority of Tory MPs.

The Tories cannot afford to get this wrong. Whoever is elected should be in for the long haul. The chances are that the winner will find himself still in opposition the day after the next general election. So the prospect is of nine or 10 years, at least, before there is any sign of office. Mr Portillo is an impatient man, but he must accommodate himself to years of frustration and disappointments. If he gets to Downing Street, he will be nearer to 60 than 50.

Paul Nath hairdressers in Shaftesbury Avenue will have an ever-increasing responsibility to keep the quiff ­ by then thinning, or even turning grey ­ in good order. In the meantime, rebuilding the party in the constituencies will be as important as policy-making. At least John Paul Getty Jnr's £5m donation ensures that the party can recreate the old, independent role of Central Office Research Department. Mr Portillo's first task should be the appointment of a Chris Patten figure to recruit the young Michael Portillos graduating from universities this autumn.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk